David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
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Journal of Philosophical Logic 33 (6):583-606 (2004)
This paper discusses counterexamples to the thesis that the probabilities of conditionals are conditional probabilities. It is argued that the discrepancy is systematic and predictable, and that conditional probabilities are crucially involved in the apparently deviant interpretations. Furthermore, the examples suggest that such conditionals have a less prominent reading on which their probability is in fact the conditional probability, and that the two readings are related by a simple step of abductive inference. Central to the proposal is a distinction between causal and purely stochastic dependence between variables
|Keywords||abduction conditionals probability|
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References found in this work BETA
David K. Lewis (1973). Counterfactuals. Blackwell Publishers.
Ernest W. Adams (1975). The Logic of Conditionals: An Application of Probability to Deductive Logic. D. Reidel Pub. Co..
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David Lewis (1994). Humean Supervenience Debugged. Mind 103 (412):473-490.
Ernest Adams (1998). A Primer of Probability Logic. Stanford: Csli Publications.
Citations of this work BETA
Paul Égré & Mikaël Cozic (2011). If-Clauses and Probability Operators. Topoi 30 (1):17-29.
Daniel Rothschild (2013). Do Indicative Conditionals Express Propositions? Noûs 47 (1):49-68.
Igor Douven (2008). The Evidential Support Theory of Conditionals. Synthese 164 (1):19-44.
Morteza Dehghani, Rumen Iliev & Stefan Kaufmann (2012). Causal Explanation and Fact Mutability in Counterfactual Reasoning. Mind and Language 27 (1):55-85.
John Cantwell (2010). On an Alleged Counter-Example to Causal Decision Theory. Synthese 173 (2):127 - 152.
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