David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jack Alan Reynolds
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Journal of Philosophical Logic 33 (6):583-606 (2004)
This paper discusses counterexamples to the thesis that the probabilities of conditionals are conditional probabilities. It is argued that the discrepancy is systematic and predictable, and that conditional probabilities are crucially involved in the apparently deviant interpretations. Furthermore, the examples suggest that such conditionals have a less prominent reading on which their probability is in fact the conditional probability, and that the two readings are related by a simple step of abductive inference. Central to the proposal is a distinction between causal and purely stochastic dependence between variables
|Keywords||abduction conditionals probability|
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References found in this work BETA
David K. Lewis (1973). Counterfactuals. Blackwell Publishers.
David Lewis (1979). Counterfactual Dependence and Time's Arrow. Noûs 13 (4):455-476.
Ernest W. Adams (1975). The Logic of Conditionals: An Application of Probability to Deductive Logic. D. Reidel Pub. Co..
Bas van Fraassen (1976). Probabilities of Conditionals. In C. Hooker (ed.), Foundations of probability theory, statistical inference, and statistical theories of science.
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Citations of this work BETA
Justin Khoo (2016). Probabilities of Conditionals in Context. Linguistics and Philosophy (1):1-43.
Paul Égré & Mikaël Cozic (2011). If-Clauses and Probability Operators. Topoi 30 (1):17-29.
Daniel Rothschild (2013). Do Indicative Conditionals Express Propositions? Noûs 47 (1):49-68.
Theodore Korzukhin (2016). Probabilities of Conditionals in Context - A Comment on Khoo (2016). Linguistics and Philosophy 39 (1):45-49.
Justin Khoo (2013). Conditionals, Indeterminacy, and Triviality. Philosophical Perspectives 27 (1):260-287.
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