David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
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Erkenntnis 70 (3):313 - 330 (2009)
Three related intuitions are explicated in this paper. The first is the idea that there must be some kind of probabilistic version of the HD-method, a ‘Hypothetico-Probabilistic (HP-) method’, in terms of something like probabilistic consequences, instead of deductive consequences. According to the second intuition, the comparative application of this method should also be functional for some probabilistic kind of empirical progress, and according to the third intuition this should be functional for something like probabilistic truth approximation. In all three cases, the guiding idea is to explicate these intuitions by explicating the crucial notions as appropriate ‘concretizations’ of their deductive analogs, being ‘idealizations’. It turns out that the comparative version of the proposed HP-method amounts to the likelihood comparison (LC-) method applied to the cumulated evidence. This method turns out to be not only functional for probabilistic empirical progress but also for probabilistic truth approximation. The latter is based on a probabilistic threshold theorem constituting for this reason the analog of the deductive success theorem.
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References found in this work BETA
Theo Af Kuipers (2004). Inference to the Best Theory, Rather Than Inference to the Best Explanation. Kinds of Abduction and Induction. In Friedrich Stadler (ed.), Vienna Circle Institute Yearbook. Springer 25-51.
Malcolm R. Forster (2006). Counterexamples to a Likelihood Theory of Evidence. Minds and Machines 16 (3):319-338.
T. Kuipers (2004). Inference to the Best Theory. Kinds of Induction and Abduction, Rather Than Inference to the Best Explanation. In Friedrich Stadler (ed.), Induction and Deduction in the Sciences. Springer 25--51.
Jerzy Brzeziński, Andrzej Klawiter, Theo A. F. Kuipers, Krzysztof Łastowski, Katarzyna Paprzycka & Piotr Przybysz (eds.) (2007). The Courage of Doing Philosophy: Essays Dedicated to Leszek Nowak. Rodopi.
T. Kuipers (2007). The Hypothetico-Probabilistic (HP-) Method as a Concretization of the HD-Method. In Sami Pihlström, Panu Raatikainen & Matti Sintonen (eds.), Approaching Truth: Essays in Honour of Ilkka Niiniluoto. College Publications 179--207.
Citations of this work BETA
Ilkka Niiniluoto (2011). Revising Beliefs Towards the Truth. Erkenntnis 75 (2):165-181.
Theo A. F. Kuipers (2012). A Realist Partner for Linda: Confirming a Theoretical Hypothesis More Than its Observational Sub-Hypothesis. Synthese 184 (1):63-71.
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