The calibration question

Abstract
Recent discussion of the calibration of probability assessments is related to the earlier influential attitudes of Fréchet. The limiting frequency criterion of good calibration is criticised as being of no relevance to the evaluation of the probability of any event. An operational definition of good calibration is proposed which treats calibration properties as characteristics of the assessor's entire body of opinion, not of opinion about some particular event or events. In these terms a result is shown which says that every coherent opinion distribution is well-calibrated. Scoring rule representations as calibration plus refinement scores are discussed. It is proposed that a subjectivist could well attribute particular bad experiences to 'luck', and must balance this sense of luck with a sense of the inadequacy of his/her own knowledge when evaluating previous knowledge and experience
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
Options
 Save to my reading list
Follow the author(s)
My bibliography
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Revision history Request removal from index
 
Download options
PhilPapers Archive


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy on self-archival     Papers currently archived: 9,395
External links
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library
References found in this work BETA

No references found.

Citations of this work BETA

No citations found.

Similar books and articles
Analytics

Monthly downloads

Added to index

2009-01-28

Total downloads

6 ( #163,327 of 1,089,554 )

Recent downloads (6 months)

1 ( #71,200 of 1,089,554 )

How can I increase my downloads?

My notes
Sign in to use this feature


Discussion
Start a new thread
Order:
There  are no threads in this forum
Nothing in this forum yet.