David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 35 (3):213-221 (1984)
Recent discussion of the calibration of probability assessments is related to the earlier influential attitudes of Fréchet. The limiting frequency criterion of good calibration is criticised as being of no relevance to the evaluation of the probability of any event. An operational definition of good calibration is proposed which treats calibration properties as characteristics of the assessor's entire body of opinion, not of opinion about some particular event or events. In these terms a result is shown which says that every coherent opinion distribution is well-calibrated. Scoring rule representations as calibration plus refinement scores are discussed. It is proposed that a subjectivist could well attribute particular bad experiences to 'luck', and must balance this sense of luck with a sense of the inadequacy of his/her own knowledge when evaluating previous knowledge and experience
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Luca Mari (2000). Beyond the Representational Viewpoint: A New Formalization of Measurement. Measurement 27 (2):71-84.
Robert A. Skipper (2004). Calibration of Laboratory Models in Population Genetics. Perspectives on Science 12 (4):369-393.
Daniel Steel (2001). Bayesian Statistics in Radiocarbon Calibration. Proceedings of the Philosophy of Science Association 2001 (3):S153-.
Gregory Wheeler (2012). Objective Bayesian Calibration and the Problem of Non-Convex Evidence. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 63 (4):841-850.
Michael H. Brill (1999). A Wiring Demon Meets Socialized Humans and Calibrated Photometers. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 22 (6):948-949.
Paul Weirich (2012). Calibration. In Henk de Regt, Stephen Hartmann & Samir Okasha (eds.), EPSA Philosophy of Science: Amsterdam 2009. Springer 415–425.
Jonathan M. Weinberg (2012). Intuition & Calibration. Essays in Philosophy 13 (1):15.
Teddy Seidenfeld (1985). Calibration, Coherence, and Scoring Rules. Philosophy of Science 52 (2):274-294.
Added to index2009-01-28
Total downloads59 ( #56,150 of 1,725,176 )
Recent downloads (6 months)50 ( #22,899 of 1,725,176 )
How can I increase my downloads?