Immodest inductive methods

Philosophy of Science 38 (1):54-63 (1971)
Inductive methods can be used to estimate the accuracies of inductive methods. Call a method immodest if it estimates that it is at least as accurate as any of its rivals. It would be unreasonable to adopt any but an immodest method. Under certain assumptions, exactly one of Carnap's lambda-methods is immodest. This may seem to solve the problem of choosing among the lambda-methods; but sometimes the immodest lambda-method is λ =0, which it would not be reasonable to adopt. We should therefore reconsider the assumptions that led to this conclusion: for instance, the measure of accuracy
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Hartry Field (2009). Epistemology Without Metaphysics. Philosophical Studies 143 (2):249 - 290.
Karl Schafer (2010). Evolution and Normative Scepticism. Australasian Journal of Philosophy 88 (3):471-488.
Sophie Horowitz (2013). Immoderately Rational. Philosophical Studies 167 (1):1-16.

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