Confirmation and Robustness of Climate Models

Philosophy of Science 77 (5):971–984 (2010)
Abstract
Recent philosophical attention to climate models has highlighted their weaknesses and uncertainties. Here I address the ways that models gain support through observational data. I review examples of model fit, variety of evidence, and independent support for aspects of the models, contrasting my analysis with that of other philosophers. I also investigate model robustness, which often emerges when comparing climate models simulating the same time period or set of conditions. Starting from Michael Weisberg’s analysis of robustness, I conclude that his approach involves a version of reasoning from variety of evidence, enabling this robustness to be a confirmatory virtue..
Keywords climate models  confirmation  empirical support  robustness  variety of evidence
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DOI 10.1086/657427
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References found in this work BETA
Michael Weisberg (2006). Robustness Analysis. Philosophy of Science 73 (5):730-742.
Jim Woodward (2006). Some Varieties of Robustness. Journal of Economic Methodology 13 (2):219-240.
Wendy S. Parker (2009). Confirmation and Adequacy-for-Purpose in Climate Modelling. Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 83 (1):233-249.

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Citations of this work BETA
Jonah N. Schupbach (forthcoming). Robustness Analysis as Explanatory Reasoning. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science:axw008.
Joel Katzav (2014). The Epistemology of Climate Models and Some of its Implications for Climate Science and the Philosophy of Science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 46 (2):228-238.

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Similar books and articles
Elisabeth A. Lloyd (2009). Varieties of Support and Confirmation of Climate Models. Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 83 (1):213-232.
J. Kuorikoski, A. Lehtinen & C. Marchionni (2010). Economic Modelling as Robustness Analysis. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 61 (3):541-567.
Wendy S. Parker (2009). Confirmation and Adequacy-for-Purpose in Climate Modelling. Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 83 (1):233-249.
Jim Woodward (2006). Some Varieties of Robustness. Journal of Economic Methodology 13 (2):219-240.
Michael Weisberg (2006). Robustness Analysis. Philosophy of Science 73 (5):730-742.
K. Steele & C. Werndl (2013). Climate Models, Calibration, and Confirmation. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64 (3):609-635.

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