David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Synthese 182 (3):413-432 (2010)
Some have argued that chance and determinism are compatible in order to account for the objectivity of probabilities in theories that are compatible with determinism, like Classical Statistical Mechanics (CSM) and Evolutionary Theory (ET). Contrarily, some have argued that chance and determinism are incompatible, and so such probabilities are subjective. In this paper, I argue that both of these positions are unsatisfactory. I argue that the probabilities of theories like CSM and ET are not chances, but also that they are not subjective probabilities either. Rather, they are a third type of probability, which I call counterfactual probability. The main distinguishing feature of counterfactual-probability is the role it plays in conveying important counterfactual information in explanations. This distinguishes counterfactual probability from chance as a second concept of objective probability.
|Keywords||Chance Determinism Probability concepts Objective probability Credence|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
David Z. Albert (2000). Time and Chance. Harvard University Press.
Robert W. Batterman (1992). Explanatory Instability. Noûs 26 (3):325-348.
John C. Bigelow (1976). Possible Worlds Foundations for Probability. Journal of Philosophical Logic 5 (3):299--320.
John C. Bigelow (1977). Semantics of Probability. Synthese 36 (4):459--72.
Antony Eagle (2004). Twenty-One Arguments Against Propensity Analyses of Probability. Erkenntnis 60 (3):371–416.
Citations of this work BETA
Roman Frigg & Carl Hoefer (2013). The Best Humean System for Statistical Mechanics. Erkenntnis:1-24.
Similar books and articles
Gabriella Pigozzi, On the Notion of Admissibility in Chance-Credence Principles: A Comment on Vranas.
B. Loewer (2001). Determinism and Chance. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B 32 (4):609-620.
Kevin Nelson (2009). On Background: Using Two-Argument Chance. Synthese 166 (1):165 - 186.
Jan Von Plato (1982). Probability and Determinism. Philosophy of Science 49 (1):51-66.
Toby Handfield (2012). A Philosophical Guide to Chance: Physical Probability. Cambridge University Press.
Jacob Rosenthal (2012). Probabilities as Ratios of Ranges in Initial-State Spaces. Journal of Logic, Language and Information 21 (2):217-236.
John M. Vickers (1988). Chance and Structure: An Essay on the Logical Foundations of Probability. Oxford University Press.
Richard Pettigrew (2013). What Chance‐Credence Norms Should Not Be. Noûs 47 (3):177-196.
Jonathan Schaffer (2007). Deterministic Chance? British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 58 (2):113 - 140.
Barry Loewer (2004). David Lewis's Humean Theory of Objective Chance. Philosophy of Science 71 (5):1115--25.
Roberta L. Millstein (2003). Interpretations of Probability in Evolutionary Theory. Philosophy of Science 70 (5):1317-1328.
Added to index2010-09-17
Total downloads110 ( #12,930 of 1,692,211 )
Recent downloads (6 months)8 ( #29,223 of 1,692,211 )
How can I increase my downloads?