David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
It is difficult to overestimate Paul Meehl’s influence on judgment and decision-making research. His ‘disturbing little book’ (Meehl, 1986, p. 370) Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence (1954) is known as an attack on human judgment and a call for replacing clinicians with actuarial methods. More than 40 years later, fast and frugal heuristics—proposed as models of human judgment—were formalized, tested, and found to be surprisingly accurate, often more so than the actuarial models that Meehl advocated. We ask three questions: Do the findings of the two programs contradict each other? More generally, how are the programs conceptually connected? Is there anything they can learn from each other? After demonstrating that there need not be a contradiction, we show that both programs converge in their concern to develop (a) domain-specific models of judgment and (b) nonlinear process models that arise from the bounded nature of judgment. We then elaborate the differences between the programs and discuss how these differences can be viewed as mutually instructive: First, we show that the fast and frugal..
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
No categories specified
(categorize this paper)
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library||
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Clare Harries & Mandeep K. Dhami (2000). On the Descriptive Validity and Prescriptive Utility of Fast and Frugal Models. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (5):753-754.
José Luis Bermúdez (2000). Rationality, Logic, and Fast and Frugal Heuristics. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (5):744-745.
Laura Martignon & Michael Schmitt (1999). Simplicity and Robustness of Fast and Frugal Heuristics. Minds and Machines 9 (4):565-593.
James Shanteau & Rickey P. Thomas (2000). Fast and Frugal Heuristics: What About Unfriendly Environments? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (5):762-763.
R. Duncan Luce (2000). Fast, Frugal, and Surprisingly Accurate Heuristics. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (5):757-758.
Colin Allen (2000). The Evolution of Rational Demons. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (5):742-742.
Mandeep K. Dhami & Clare Harries (2001). Fast and Frugal Versus Regression Models of Human Judgement. Thinking and Reasoning 7 (1):5 – 27.
Gerd Gigerenzer (1999). Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. Oxford University Press.
Laura Martignon & Ulrich Hoffrage (2002). Fast, Frugal, and Fit: Simple Heuristics for Paired Comparison. Theory and Decision 52 (1):29-71.
Richard Cooper (2000). Simple Heuristics Could Make Us Smart; but Which Heuristics Do We Apply When? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (5):746-746.
Gerd Gigerenzer & Thomas Sturm (2012). How (Far) Can Rationality Be Naturalized? Synthese 187 (1):243-268.
Malcolm R. Forster (1999). How Do Simple Rules `Fit to Reality' in a Complex World? Minds and Machines 9 (4):543-564.
Benjamin E. Hilbig & Tobias Richter (2011). Homo Heuristicus Outnumbered: Comment on Gigerenzer and Brighton (2009). Topics in Cognitive Science 3 (1):187-196.
Michael A. Bishop (2006). Fast and Frugal Heuristics. Philosophy Compass 1 (2):201–223.
Terry Connolly (1999). Action as a Fast and Frugal Heuristic. Minds and Machines 9 (4):479-496.
Added to index2010-12-22
Total downloads11 ( #142,253 of 1,100,115 )
Recent downloads (6 months)2 ( #190,012 of 1,100,115 )
How can I increase my downloads?