Bayesian probability

Synthese 172 (1):119 - 127 (2010)
Bayesian decision theory is here construed as explicating a particular concept of rational choice and Bayesian probability is taken to be the concept of probability used in that theory. Bayesian probability is usually identified with the agent’s degrees of belief but that interpretation makes Bayesian decision theory a poor explication of the relevant concept of rational choice. A satisfactory conception of Bayesian decision theory is obtained by taking Bayesian probability to be an explicatum for inductive probability given the agent’s evidence.
Keywords Bayesian probability  Logical probability  Inductive probability  Subjective probability  Degrees of belief  Decision theory  Expected utility  Explication  Carnap
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DOI 10.2307/40496027
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References found in this work BETA
Rudolf Carnap (1952). The Continuum of Inductive Methods. [Chicago]University of Chicago Press.
Patrick Maher (2007). Explication Defended. Studia Logica 86 (2):331 - 341.

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