Bets and boundaries: Assigning probabilities to imprecisely specified events

Studia Logica 90 (3):425 - 453 (2008)
Uncertainty and vagueness/imprecision are not the same: one can be certain about events described using vague predicates and about imprecisely specified events, just as one can be uncertain about precisely specified events. Exactly because of this, a question arises about how one ought to assign probabilities to imprecisely specified events in the case when no possible available evidence will eradicate the imprecision (because, say, of the limits of accuracy of a measuring device). Modelling imprecision by rough sets over an approximation space presents an especially tractable case to help get one’s bearings. Two solutions present themselves: the first takes as upper and lower probabilities of the event X the (exact) probabilities assigned X ’s upper and lower rough-set approximations; the second, motivated both by formal considerations and by a simple betting argument, is to treat X ’s rough-set approximation as a conditional event and assign to it a point-valued (conditional) probability.
Keywords probability   conditional probability   rough set theory   tolerance relations   proximity   Journal Article   Neural networks (Computer science)   Fuzzy systems   Fuzzy logic
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References found in this work BETA
R. I. Goldblatt (1974). Semantic Analysis of Orthologic. Journal of Philosophical Logic 3 (1/2):19 - 35.
Peter Milne (1997). Bruno de Finetti and the Logic of Conditional Events. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 48 (2):195-232.

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