Probability theory and causation: A branching space-times analysis
British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 56 (3):487 - 520 (2005)
| Abstract | We provide a formally rigorous framework for integrating singular causation, as understood by Nuel Belnap's theory of causae causantes, and objective single case probabilities. The central notion is that of a causal probability space whose sample space consists of causal alternatives. Such a probability space is generally not isomorphic to a product space. We give a causally motivated statement of the Markov condition and an analysis of the concept of screening-off. Causal dependencies and probabilities 1.1 Background: causation in branching space-times 1.2 What are probabilities defined for? Basic transitions 2.1 Basics of basic transitions 2.2 Sets of basic transitions Causal probability theory 3.1 Some simple cases 3.2 General causal probabilities 3.3 Application: probability of suprema of a chain. | |||||||||
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