Sleeping beauty and the forgetful bayesian

Analysis 62 (1):47–53 (2002)
Abstract
1. Consider the case of Sleeping Beauty: on Sunday she is put to sleep, and she knows that on Monday experimenters will wake her up, and then put her to sleep with a memory-erasing drug that causes her to forget that waking-up. The researchers will then flip a fair coin; if the result is Heads, they will allow her to continue to sleep, and if the result is Tails, they will wake her up again on Tuesday. Thus, when she is awakened, she will not know whether it is Monday or Tuesday. On Sunday, she assigns probability 1/2 to the proposition H that the coin lands Heads. What probability should she assign to H on Monday, when she wakes up? Adam Elga (2000) argues that the answer is 1/3. As Elga (citing Ned Hall) points out, though, this answer violates Bas van Fraassen’s (1984, 1995a) Reflection Principle, which entails that..
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
Options
 Save to my reading list
Follow the author(s)
My bibliography
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Revision history Request removal from index
 
Download options
PhilPapers Archive


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy on self-archival     Papers currently archived: 10,760
External links
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library
References found in this work BETA

No references found.

Citations of this work BETA

View all 14 citations

Similar books and articles
Analytics

Monthly downloads

Added to index

2009-01-28

Total downloads

35 ( #48,495 of 1,098,955 )

Recent downloads (6 months)

7 ( #33,712 of 1,098,955 )

How can I increase my downloads?

My notes
Sign in to use this feature


Discussion
Start a new thread
Order:
There  are no threads in this forum
Nothing in this forum yet.