|Abstract||According to Wright, Moore’s contentious “proof of the existence of a material world” in not cogent because no warrant can transmit from its premise to its conclusion. Since Bayesian confirmation theory probably affords the best account of inductive reasoning we have today, if Wright’s analysis of Moore’s “proof” could be translated in Bayesian language, it would probably be preferable to rival analyses that cannot be reformulated in the same way. Okasha has recently proposed a Bayesian model that apparently vindicates Wright’s analysis on the whole. In this paper I first argue that Okasha’s Bayesian vindication is in different respects flawed and thus unacceptable. I then propose a more suitable Bayesian framework, resting on the so-called Lockean Thesis, which does vindicate Wright’s analysis. My investigation sheds new lights on the logical features proper to the warrant that Wright deems not to transmit across entailment, on the constituents of the logical “mechanism” that according to Wright engenders failure of transmission, and on the fine structure of the rational architecture of perceptual warrant outlined by Wright.|
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