David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Thinking and Reasoning 15 (3):268-293 (2011)
Nearly all framing studies to date presuppose unbiased estimates. If an expert says that “programme A will save 200 people”, it is tacitly assumed that this prediction is correct. In real life this is rarely the case. In the present study people were asked to evaluate such claims that eventually turned out to be incorrect. Participants in five experiments were asked to rate how correct, and how true, are predictions and reports that either overstate or understate the facts. Overall, understatements were considered more accurate than overstatements, and pessimistic statements were better than overly optimistic ones. Thus predictions of an outcome that turns out better than expected should preferably have been presented in a positive frame (e.g., money saved), whereas outcomes that turn out worse than expected will appear less “wrong” if predictions were presented in a negative frame (e.g., money lost). Parallel studies were performed with wrong predictions and incorrect factual claims (lies). In all studies, correctness ratings were affected by the way the statements were framed.
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
David W. Green David, E. Over Robin & A. Pyne (1997). Probability and Choice in the Selection Task. Thinking and Reasoning 3 (3):209 – 235.
Josef Perner & Anton Kühberger (2002). Framing and the Theory-Simulation Controversy. Predicting People's Decisions. Mind and Society 3 (2):65-80.
Amber N. Bloomfield, Josh A. Sager, Daniel M. Bartels & Douglas L. Medin (2006). Caring About Framing Effects. Mind and Society 5 (2):123-138.
Roger C. Buck (1963). Reflexive Predictions. Philosophy of Science 30 (4):359-369.
Elliott Sober (2001). Instrumentalism Revisited. The Proceedings of the Twentieth World Congress of Philosophy 2001 (91):3 - 39.
David S. Oderberg (2000). Is There a Right to Be Wrong? Philosophy 75 (4):517-537.
Audun Øfsti & Dag Østerberg (1982). Self-Defeating Predictions and the Fixed-Point Theorem: A Refutation. Inquiry 25 (3):331 – 352.
Robert M. Veatch (1991). Consensus of Expertise: The Role of Consensus of Experts in Formulating Public Policy and Estimating Facts. Journal of Medicine and Philosophy 16 (4):427-445.
Karl Halvor Teigen & Mija Ilic Nikolaisen (2009). Incorrect Estimates and False Reports: How Framing Modifies Truth. Thinking and Reasoning 15 (3):268 – 293.
Added to index2010-07-27
Total downloads10 ( #323,970 of 1,792,018 )
Recent downloads (6 months)6 ( #139,057 of 1,792,018 )
How can I increase my downloads?