An empirical approach to symmetry and probability

Abstract
We often use symmetries to infer outcomes’ probabilities, as when we infer that each side of a fair coin is equally likely to come up on a given toss. Why are these inferences successful? I argue against answering this with an a priori indifference principle. Reasons to reject that principle are familiar, yet instructive. They point to a new, empirical explanation for the success of our probabilistic predictions. This has implications for indifference reasoning in general. I argue that a priori symmetries need never constrain our probability attributions, even when it comes to our initial credences.
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References found in this work BETA
Craig Callender (2011). The Past Histories of Molecules. In Claus Beisbart & Stephan Hartmann (eds.), Probabilities in Physics. Oxford University Press. 83--113.
Craig Callender (2000). XII: Is Time 'Handed' in a Quantum World? Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 100 (3):247–269.

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Citations of this work BETA
Jacob Rosenthal (2012). Probabilities as Ratios of Ranges in Initial-State Spaces. Journal of Logic, Language and Information 21 (2):217-236.
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