David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Philosophy of Science 77 (4):501-523 (2010)
Bayesian probabilistic explication of inductive inference conflates neutrality of supporting evidence for some hypothesis H (“not supporting H”) with disfavoring evidence (“supporting not-H”). This expressive inadequacy leads to spurious results that are artifacts of a poor choice of inductive logic. I illustrate how such artifacts have arisen in simple inductive inferences in cosmology. In the inductive disjunctive fallacy, neutral support for many possibilities is spuriously converted into strong support for their disjunction. The Bayesian “doomsday argument” is shown to rely entirely on a similar artifact, for the result disappears in a reanalysis that employs fragments of inductive logic able to represent evidential neutrality. Finally, the mere supposition of a multiverse is not yet enough to warrant the introduction of probabilities without some factual analog of a randomizer over the multiverses.
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
John D. Norton (2003). A Material Theory of Induction. Philosophy of Science 70 (4):647-670.
John Norton (2008). Ignorance and Indifference. Philosophy of Science 75 (1):45-68.
John D. Norton (2007). Probability Disassembled. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 58 (2):141 - 171.
John D. Norton (2007). Disbelief as the Dual of Belief. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 21 (3):231 – 252.
Citations of this work BETA
Yann Benétreau-Dupin (2015). The Bayesian Who Knew Too Much. Synthese 192 (5):1527-1542.
John D. Norton (2011). Waiting for Landauer. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B 42 (3):184-198.
Sabina Leonelli (2015). What Counts as Scientific Data? A Relational Framework. Philosophy of Science 82 (5):810-821.
Chris Smeenk (2014). Predictability Crisis in Early Universe Cosmology. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 46 (1):122-133.
John D. Norton (2011). History of Science and the Material Theory of Induction: Einstein's Quanta, Mercury's Perihelion. [REVIEW] European Journal for Philosophy of Science 1 (1):3-27.
Similar books and articles
Michael Strevens (2004). Bayesian Confirmation Theory: Inductive Logic, or Mere Inductive Framework? Synthese 141 (3):365 - 379.
Rom Harré (1996). From Observability to Manipulability: Extending the Inductive Arguments for Realism. Synthese 108 (2):137 - 155.
Peter Achinstein (1962). The Circularity of a Self-Supporting Inductive Argument. Analysis 22 (6):138 - 141.
Andrew D. Cling (2003). Self-Supporting Arguments. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 66 (2):279–303.
James Hawthorne (1989). Giving Up Judgment Empiricism: The Bayesian Epistemology of Bertrand Russell and Grover Maxwell. In C. Wade Savage & C. Anthony Anderson (eds.), ReReading Russell: Bertrand Russell's Metaphysics and Epistemology; Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science, Volume 12. University of Minnesota Press
Steven Gimbel (2004). Restoring Ambiguity to Achinstein's Account of Evidence. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 55 (2):269-285.
Max Black (1958). Self-Supporting Inductive Arguments. Journal of Philosophy 55 (17):718-725.
Asa Kasher (1972). On the Puzzle of Self-Supporting Inductive Arguments. Mind 81 (322):277-279.
Nelson Pole (1970). 'Self-Supporting' Inductive Arguments. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1970:496 - 503.
Added to index2009-10-15
Total downloads64 ( #63,215 of 1,790,061 )
Recent downloads (6 months)20 ( #40,076 of 1,790,061 )
How can I increase my downloads?