David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
World Futures 61 (5):331 – 346 (2005)
This article will argue that there is a science of scenario planning; or at least a logos, a logic, a scenariology. Scenario planning is not predictive. But a good set of scenarios, scientifically developed, can reliably and predictably change minds. Scenario planning is both art and science. In joining the club of the sciences, scenario planning calls for a new kind of membership, or a new kind of science, one that, following Stuart Kauffman, relies on the importance of story. Hegel tells us that all stories, all narratives include a conflict between desire and the law, intention, and necessity. Scenarios provide a way for communities to frame their intentions. They thereby effect "downward causality" on the present in order to project the present toward a preferred future. In fulfilling the promise of this new kind of science, scenario planning breaks with positivistic science, but without falling into a postmodern nihilism. Without setting out to do so, the discipline of scenario planning introduces us to a new epistemology, a new way of knowing the truth. Drawing on pragmatism, Wittgenstein, and Richard Rorty, this article reaches the conclusion that, for scenario planners, the future replaces objectivity as the horizon for justification. What is true? We'll see.
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
No categories specified
(categorize this paper)
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Valérie Gaveau & Michel Desmurget (2004). Do Movement Planning and Control Represent Independent Modules? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 27 (1):35-36.
Andreas Faludi (1998). Why in Planning the Myth of the Framework is Anything but That. Philosophy of the Social Sciences 28 (3):381-399.
Matthew R. Longo & Bennett I. Bertenthal (2004). Automaticity and Inhibition in Action Planning. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 27 (1):44-45.
Darlene Bay & Alexey Nikitkov (2011). Subjective Probability Assessments of the Incidence of Unethical Behavior: The Importance of Scenario–Respondent Fit. Business Ethics 20 (1):1-11.
John Threlfall (2005). The Formative Use of Assessment Information in Planning: The Notion of Contingent Planning. British Journal of Educational Studies 53 (1):54 - 65.
Chrisoula Andreou (2004). Instrumentally Rational Myopic Planning. Philosophical Papers 33 (2):133-145.
Gregor Betz (2009). Underdetermination, Model-Ensembles and Surprises: On the Epistemology of Scenario-Analysis in Climatology. [REVIEW] Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 40 (1):3 - 21.
Added to index2009-01-28
Total downloads10 ( #206,393 of 1,696,455 )
Recent downloads (6 months)4 ( #139,058 of 1,696,455 )
How can I increase my downloads?