No method of ampliative inference respects conditionalization
| Abstract | Let two events A, B be given. We consider probability distributions over the partition P = {A ∩ B, A ∩ ¯ B, ¯ A ∩ B, ¯ A ∩ ¯ B}. By a “constraint” is meant a probabilistically coherent set of statements each of the form Prob(E) = x, where E is a subset of P . Let C be the class of constraints. By a “method of ampliative inference” is meant any total function M from C to the class of probability distributions over P , provided that M has the following property. | |||||||||
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