Confirmation and adequacy-for-purpose in climate modelling

Abstract
Lloyd (2009) contends that climate models are confirmed by various instances of fit between their output and observational data. The present paper argues that what these instances of fit might confirm are not climate models themselves, but rather hypotheses about the adequacy of climate models for particular purposes. This required shift in thinking—from confirming climate models to confirming their adequacy-for-purpose—may sound trivial, but it is shown to complicate the evaluation of climate models considerably, both in principle and in practice.
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References found in this work BETA
Elisabeth A. Lloyd (2009). Varieties of Support and Confirmation of Climate Models. Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 83 (1):213-232.
Michael Weisberg (2006). Robustness Analysis. Philosophy of Science 73 (5):730-742.
Michael Weisberg (2006). Robustness Analysis. Philosophy of Science 73 (5):730-742.

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Citations of this work BETA
Stephen M. Downes (2011). Scientific Models. Philosophy Compass 6 (11):757-764.
Joel Katzav (2013). Severe Testing of Climate Change Hypotheses. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 44 (4):433-441.

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Elisabeth A. Lloyd (2009). Varieties of Support and Confirmation of Climate Models. Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 83 (1):213-232.
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