David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Theory and Decision 49 (1):25-51 (2000)
The irreversibility effect implies that a decision maker who neglects the prospect of receiving more complete information at later stages of a sequential decision problem will in certain cases too easily take an irreversible decision, as he ignores the existence of a positive option value in favour of reversible decisions. This option value represents the decision maker's flexibility to adapt subsequent decisions to the obtained information. In this paper we show that the economic models dealing with irreversibility as used in environmental and capital investment decision making can be extended to emergency response decisions that produce important irreversible effects. In particular, we concentrate on the decision whether or not to evacuate an industrial area threatened by a possible nuclear accident. We show in a simple two-period evacuation decision model that non-optimal conclusions may be drawn when evacuation is regarded as a `now or never decision'. The robustness of these results is verified by means of a sensitivity analysis of the various model parameters. The importance of `options thinking' in this decision context is illustrated in an example
|Keywords||Emergency response Flexibility Information Irreversibility Option value|
No categories specified
(categorize this paper)
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Prasanta K. Pattanaik & Yongsheng Xu (2012). On Dominance and Context-Dependence in Decisions Involving Multiple Attributes. Economics and Philosophy 28 (2):117-132.
Shyama V. Ramani & Alban Richard (1993). Decision, Irreversibility and Flexibility: The Irreversibility Effect Re-Examined. Theory and Decision 35 (3):259-276.
Marjorie T. Stanley (1990). Ethical Perspectives on the Foreign Direct Investment Decision. Journal of Business Ethics 9 (1):1 - 10.
Joe Mintoff (1999). Are Decisions Motive-Perpetuating? Analysis 59 (4):266–275.
Eugene C. Hargrove (1985). The Role of Rules in Ethical Decision Making. Inquiry 28 (1-4):3 – 42.
Waymond Rodgers & Susana Gago (2001). Cultural and Ethical Effects on Managerial Decisions: Examined in a Throughput Model. [REVIEW] Journal of Business Ethics 31 (4):355 - 367.
Elke U. Weber, Daniel Ames & Ann-Renee Blais, 'How Do I Choose Thee? Let Me Count the Ways': A Textual Analysis of Similarities and Differences in Modes of Decision-Making in China and the United States.
Nils O. Larsson (2000). Decision Settings Analysis Â a Tool for Analysis and Design of Human Activity Systems. Theory and Decision 49 (4):339-360.
John R. Welch (2012). Real-Life Decisions and Decision Theory. In Sabine Roeser, Rafaela Hillerbrand, Per Sandin & Martin Peterson (eds.), Handbook of Risk Theory. Springer.
Katie Steele, Helen M. Regan, Mark Colyvan & Mark A. Burgman (2007). Right Decisions or Happy Decision-Makers? Social Epistemology 21 (4):349 – 368.
Hans Gersbach (1997). Risk and the Value of Information in Irreversible Decisions. Theory and Decision 42 (1):37-51.
Eva Hofmann, Erik Hoelzl & Erich Kirchler (2008). A Comparison of Models Describing the Impact of Moral Decision Making on Investment Decisions. Journal of Business Ethics 82 (1):171 - 187.
Enrica Carbone & John D. Hey (2001). A Test of the Principle of Optimality. Theory and Decision 50 (3):263-281.
Added to index2010-09-02
Total downloads6 ( #204,725 of 1,101,779 )
Recent downloads (6 months)4 ( #81,958 of 1,101,779 )
How can I increase my downloads?