On Mental Probability Logic

Dissertation, Department of Psychology (2006)
Mental probability logic is a psychological competence theory about how humans interpret and reason about common-sense conditionals. Probability logic is proposed as an appropriate standard of reference for evaluating the rationality of human inferences. Common-sense conditionals are interpreted as “high” conditional probabilities, P(B|A) > .5. Probability logical accounts of nonmonotonic reasoning and inference rules like the modus ponens are explored. Categorical syllogisms with comparative and quantitative quantifiers are investigated. A series of eight experiments on human probabilistic reasoning in the framework of the basic nonmonotonic system p corroborate the psychological plausibility of the proposed approach.
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Niki Pfeifer & Gernot D. Kleiter (2009). Mental Probability Logic. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 32 (1):98-99.

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