David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
In K. Manktelow, D. E. Over & S. Elqayam (eds.), The Science of Reason: A Festschrift for Jonathan St B.T. Evans. Psychology Press. 145--166 (2011)
Probabilistic models have started to replace classical logic as the standard reference paradigm in human deductive reasoning. Mental probability logic emphasizes general principles where human reasoning deviates from classical logic, but agrees with a probabilistic approach (like nonmonotonicity or the conditional event interpretation of conditionals). This contribution consists of two parts. In the ﬁrst part we discuss general features of reasoning systems including consequence relations, how uncertainty may enter argument forms, probability intervals, and probabilistic informativeness. These concepts are of central importance for the psychological task analysis. In the second part we report new experimental data on the paradoxes of the material conditional, the probabilistic modus ponens, the complement task, and data on the probabilistic truth table task. The results of the experiments provide evidence for the hypothesis that people represent indicative conditionals by conditional probability assertions.
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
|Through your library||Configure|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
Niki Pfeifer & Igor Douven (2013). Formal Epistemology and the New Paradigm Psychology of Reasoning. Review of Philosophy and Psychology:1-23.
Shira Elqayam & Jonathan Evans (2011). Subtracting “Ought” From “Is”: Descriptivism Versus Normativism in the Study of Human Thinking. BEHAVIORAL AND BRAIN SCIENCES 34 (05):251-252.
Niki Pfeifer (2011). Systematic Rationality Norms Provide Research Roadmaps and Clarity. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 34 (5):263-264.
Similar books and articles
Guy Politzer (2007). Reasoning with Conditionals. Topoi 26 (1):79-95.
Niki Pfeifer (2006). On Mental Probability Logic. Dissertation, Department of Psychology
Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter (2010). The Conditional in Mental Probability Logic. In M. Oaksford & N. Chater (eds.), Cognition and Conditionals: Probability and Logic in Human Thought. Oxford University Press. 153--173.
A. J. B. Fugard, Niki Pfeifer, B. Mayerhofer & G. D. Kleiter (2009). How People Interpret an Uncertain If. In T. Kroupa & J. Vejnarova (eds.), Proceedings of the 8th Workshop on Uncertainty Processing. 80-91.
A. J. B. Fugard, Niki Pfeifer & B. Mayerhofer (2011). Probabilistic Theories of Reasoning Need Pragmatics Too: Modulating Relevance in Uncertain Conditionals. Journal of Pragmatics 43:2034–2042.
Angelo Gilio (2005). Probabilistic Logic Under Coherence, Conditional Interpretations, and Default Reasoning. Synthese 146 (1-2):139 - 152.
Niki Pfeifer & Gernot D. Kleiter (2009). Mental Probability Logic. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 32 (1):98-99.
Mike Oaksford, Nick Chater & Becki Grainger (1999). Probabilistic Effects in Data Selection. Thinking and Reasoning 5 (3):193 – 243.
Andrew Jb Fugard, Niki Pfeifer, Bastian Mayerhofer & Gernot D. Kleiter (2009). How People Interpret an Uncertain If. In T. Kroupa & J. Vejnarova (eds.), Proceedings of the 8th Workshop on Uncertainty Processing.
Ernest W. Adams (1975). The Logic of Conditionals: An Application of Probability to Deductive Logic. D. Reidel Pub. Co..
Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter (2005). Towards a Mental Probability Logic. Psychologica Belgica 45 (1):71--99.
M. Oaksford & N. Chater (eds.) (2010). Cognition and Conditionals: Probability and Logic in Human Thought. Oxford University Press.
Roger M. Cooke (1986). Probabilistic Reasoning in Expert Systems Reconstructed in Probability Semantics. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1986:409 - 421.
Niki Pfeifer (2012). Experiments on Aristotle's Thesis: Towards an Experimental Philosophy of Conditionals. The Monist 95 (2):223-240.
Sieghard Beller & Gregory Kuhnm (2007). What Causal Conditional Reasoning Tells Us About People's Understanding of Causality. Thinking and Reasoning 13 (4):426 – 460.
Added to index2011-04-22
Total downloads33 ( #44,371 of 1,088,372 )
Recent downloads (6 months)1 ( #69,449 of 1,088,372 )
How can I increase my downloads?