David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Philosophy of Science 76 (1):73-100 (2009)
Gott ( 1993 ) has used the ‘Copernican principle’ to derive a probability distribution for the total longevity of any phenomenon, based solely on the phenomenon’s past longevity. Leslie ( 1996 ) and others have used an apparently similar probabilistic argument, the ‘Doomsday Argument’, to claim that conventional predictions of longevity must be adjusted, based on Bayes’s Theorem, in favor of shorter longevities. Here I show that Gott’s arguments are flawed and contradictory, but that one of his conclusions is plausible and mathematically equivalent to Laplace’s famous—and notorious—‘rule of succession’. On the other hand, the Doomsday Argument, though it appears consistent with some common‐sense grains of truth, is fallacious; the argument’s key error is to conflate future longevity and total longevity. Applying the work of Hill ( 1968 ) and Coolen ( 1998 , 2006 ) in the field of nonparametric predictive inference, I propose an alternative argument for quantifying how past longevity of a phenomenon does provide evidence for future longevity. In so doing, I identify an objective standard by which to choose among counting time intervals, counting population, or counting any other measure of past longevity in predicting future longevity. *Received May 2007; revised October 2008. †To contact the author, please e‐mail: firstname.lastname@example.org.
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
Peter J. Lewis (2010). A Note on the Doomsday Argument. Analysis 70 (1):27-30.
Peter J. Lewis (2013). The Doomsday Argument and the Simulation Argument. Synthese 190 (18):4009-4022.
Similar books and articles
David Buller (1995). On the 'Standard' Argument for Fatalism. Philosophical Papers 24 (2):111-125.
Alexander E. Vinogradov (1998). Male Reproductive Strategy and Decreased Longevity. Acta Biotheoretica 46 (2).
Leigh Turner (2004). Life Extension Research: Health, Illness, and Death. Health Care Analysis 12 (2):117-129.
M. R. N. Bruijnis, F. L. B. Meijboom & E. N. Stassen (2013). Longevity as an Animal Welfare Issue Applied to the Case of Foot Disorders in Dairy Cattle. Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics 26 (1):191-205.
Li Chenyang (2010). Confucian Moral Cultivation, Longevity, and Public Policy. Dao: A Journal of Comparative Philosophy 9 (1):25-36.
Stuart Alve Olson (ed.) (1993). The Jade Emperor's Mind Seal Classic: A Taoist Guide to Health, Longevity and Immortality. Dragon Door.
Bradley Monton & Brian Kierland (2006). How to Predict Future Duration From Present Age. Philosophical Quarterly 56 (222):16 - 38.
Brian Kierland & Bradley Monton (2006). How to Predict Future Duration From Present Age. Philosophical Quarterly 56 (January):16-38.
Added to index2009-05-20
Total downloads38 ( #45,180 of 1,101,579 )
Recent downloads (6 months)7 ( #35,036 of 1,101,579 )
How can I increase my downloads?