The Theory of Nomic Probability

Synthese 90 (2):263 - 299 (1992)
Abstract
This article sketches a theory of objective probability focusing on "nomic probability", which is supposed to be the kind of probability figuring in statistical laws of nature. The theory is based upon a strengthened probability calculus and some epistemological principles that formulate a precise version of the "statistical syllogism". It is shown that from this rather minimal basis it is possible to derive theorems comprising (1) a theory of direct inference, and (2) a theory of induction. The theory of induction is not of the familiar Bayesian variety, but consists of a precise version of the traditional Nicod Principle and its statistical analogues
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