Verisimilitude, cross classification and prediction logic. Approaching the statistical truth by falsified qualitative theories
David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
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Mind and Society 6 (1):91-114 (2007)
In this paper it is argued that qualitative theories (Q-theories) can be used to describe the statistical structure of cross classified populations and that the notion of verisimilitude provides an appropriate tool for measuring the statistical adequacy of Q-theories. First of all, a short outline of the post-Popperian approaches to verisimilitude and of the related verisimilitudinarian non-falsificationist methodologies (VNF-methodologies) is given. Secondly, the notion of Q-theory is explicated, and the qualitative verisimilitude of Q-theories is defined. Afterwards, appropriate measures for the statistical verisimilitude of Q-theories are introduced, so to obtain a clear formulation of the intuitive idea that the statistical truth about cross classified populations can be approached by falsified Q-theories. Finally, it is argued that some basic intuitions underlying VNF-methodologies are shared by the so-called prediction logic, developed by the statisticians and social scientists David K. Hildebrand, James D. Laing and Howard Rosenthal
|Keywords||Verisimilitude Statistics Cross classification Prediction logic Qualitative theories Non-falsificationist methodologies Popper Lakatos|
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References found in this work BETA
L. Jonathan Cohen (1989). An Introduction to the Philosophy of Induction and Probability. Oxford University Press.
L. Jonathan Cohen (1977). The Probable and the Provable. Clarendon Press.
L. Jonathan Cohen (1973). The Paradox of Anomaly. In Radu J. Bogdan & Ilkka Niiniluoto (eds.), Logic, Language, and Probability. Boston,D. Reidel Pub. Co.. 78--82.
Roberto Festa (2007). Verisimilitude, Qualitative Theories, and Statistical Inferences. In Sami Pihlström, Panu Raatikainen & Matti Sintonen (eds.), Approaching Truth: Essays in Honour of Ilkka Niiniluoto. College Publications. 143--178.
Imre Lakatos (1970). Falsification and the Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes. In Imre Lakatos & Alan Musgrave (eds.), Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge. Cambridge University Press. 91-195.
Citations of this work BETA
Gustavo Cevolani & Luca Tambolo (2013). Progress as Approximation to the Truth: A Defence of the Verisimilitudinarian Approach. Erkenntnis 78 (4):921-935.
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