David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
We present three arguments regarding the limits to rationality, prediction, and control in economics, based on Morgenstern’s analysis of the Holmes-Moriarty problem. The first uses a standard metamathematical theorem on computability to indicate logical limits to forecasting the future. The second provides possible nonconvergence for Bayesian forecasting in infinite dimensional space. The third shows the impossibility of a computer perfectly forecasting an economy with agents knowing its forecasting program. Thus, economic order is partly the product of something other than calculative rationality. The joint presentation of these existing results should introduce the reader to implications of these concepts for certain shared concerns of Keynes and Hayek.
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library||
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Dana Cook Grossman & Heinz Valtin (eds.) (1999). Great Issues for Medicine in the Twenty-First Century: Ethical and Social Issues Arising Out of Advances in the Biomedical Sciences. New York Academy of Sciences.
Ota Sulc (1977). Methodology of Forecasting Complex Development Processes of the Scientific and Technological Revolution. Centre for the Study of Science, Technology, and Develop[Ment], Council of Scientific and Industrial Research.
Sabrina Hoque & Sean Clark (eds.) (2012). Debating a Post-American World: What Lies Ahead? Routledge.
Augusto Forti (ed.) (1984). Scientific Forecasting and Human Needs: Trends, Methods, and Message: Proceedings of a Symposium Held in Tbilisi, Ussr, 6-11 December 1981. [REVIEW] Pergamon.
Zdzislaw Kochanski (1973). Conditions and Limitations of Prediction-Making in Biology. Philosophy of Science 40 (1):29-51.
Peter Hayward (2008). Developing Wisdom: How Foresight Develops in Individuals and Groups. Vdm Verlag Dr. Müller.
David E. Klemm (2008). Religion and the Human Future: An Essay on Theological Humanism. Blackwell Pub..
Added to index2009-01-28
Total downloads5 ( #264,553 of 1,692,217 )
Recent downloads (6 months)1 ( #184,284 of 1,692,217 )
How can I increase my downloads?