David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
We present three arguments regarding the limits to rationality, prediction, and control in economics, based on Morgenstern's analysis of the Holmes-Moriarty problem. The first uses a standard metamathematical theorem on computability to indicate logical limits to forecasting the future. The second provides possible nonconvergence for Bayesian forecasting in infinite dimensional space. The third shows the impossibility of a computer perfectly forecasting an economy with agents knowing its forecasting program. Thus, economic order is partly the product of something other than calculative rationality. The joint presentation of these existing results should introduce the reader to implications of these concepts for certain shared concerns of Keynes and Hayek.
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
No categories specified
(categorize this paper)
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library||
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
David E. Klemm (2008). Religion and the Human Future: An Essay on Theological Humanism. Blackwell Pub..
Peter Hayward (2008). Developing Wisdom: How Foresight Develops in Individuals and Groups. Vdm Verlag Dr. Müller.
Zdzislaw Kochanski (1973). Conditions and Limitations of Prediction-Making in Biology. Philosophy of Science 40 (1):29-51.
Augusto Forti (ed.) (1984). Scientific Forecasting and Human Needs: Trends, Methods, and Message: Proceedings of a Symposium Held in Tbilisi, Ussr, 6-11 December 1981. [REVIEW] Pergamon.
Cassandra L. Pinnick (1996). Epistemology of Technology Assessment. Philosophy in the Contemporary World 3 (1):14-18.
Gregor Betz (2006). Prediction or Prophecy? The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences. DUV.
Sabrina Hoque & Sean Clark (eds.) (2012). Debating a Post-American World: What Lies Ahead? Routledge.
Barkley Rosser, Alternative Keynesian and Post Keynesian Perspectives on Uncertainty and Expectations.
Ota Sulc (1977). Methodology of Forecasting Complex Development Processes of the Scientific and Technological Revolution. Centre for the Study of Science, Technology, and Develop[Ment], Council of Scientific and Industrial Research.
Sorry, there are not enough data points to plot this chart.
Added to index2010-12-22
Total downloads4 ( #409,690 of 1,725,989 )
Recent downloads (6 months)4 ( #167,084 of 1,725,989 )
How can I increase my downloads?