Probabilities as Ratios of Ranges in Initial-State Spaces

Abstract
A proposal for an objective interpretation of probability is introduced and discussed: probabilities as deriving from ranges in suitably structured initial-state spaces. Roughly, the probability of an event on a chance trial is the proportion of initial states that lead to the event in question within the space of all possible initial states associated with this type of experiment, provided that the proportion is approximately the same in any not too small subregion of the space. This I would like to call the “natural-range conception” of probability. Providing a substantial alternative to frequency or propensity accounts of probability in a deterministic setting, it is closely related to the so-called “method of arbitrary functions”. It is explicated, confronted with certain problems, and some ideas how these might be overcome are sketched and discussed
Keywords Deterministic chance  Method of arbitrary functions  Initial-state space  Objective probability
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    References found in this work BETA
    Frank Arntzenius & Ned Hall (2003). On What We Know About Chance. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 54 (2):171-179.
    Roman Frigg & Carl Hoefer (2010). Determinism and Chance From a Humean Perspective. In Friedrich Stadler, Dennis Dieks, Wenceslao González, Hartmann J., Uebel Stephan, Weber Thomas & Marcel (eds.), The Present Situation in the Philosophy of Science. Springer. 351--72.
    Luke Glynn (2010). Deterministic Chance. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 61 (1):51–80.

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