The insufficiency of the dutch book argument

Studia Logica 87 (1):65 - 71 (2007)
It is a common view that the axioms of probability can be derived from the following assumptions: (a) probabilities reflect (rational) degrees of belief, (b) degrees of belief can be measured as betting quotients; and (c) a rational agent must select betting quotients that are coherent. In this paper, I argue that a consideration of reasonable betting behaviour, with respect to the alleged derivation of the first axiom of probability, suggests that (b) and (c) are incorrect. In particular, I show how a rational agent might assign a ‘probability’ of zero to an event which she is sure will occur.
Keywords Philosophy   Computational Linguistics   Mathematical Logic and Foundations   Logic
Categories (categorize this paper)
DOI 10.2307/40210799
 Save to my reading list
Follow the author(s)
My bibliography
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Revision history Request removal from index
Download options
PhilPapers Archive

Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy on self-archival     Papers currently archived: 16,667
External links
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library
References found in this work BETA
Alan Hájek (2005). Scotching Dutch Books? Philosophical Perspectives 19 (1):139–151.
John G. Kemeny (1955). Fair Bets and Inductive Probabilities. Journal of Symbolic Logic 20 (3):263-273.

View all 6 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA
Darrell P. Rowbottom (2008). Intersubjective Corroboration. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 39 (1):124-132.

View all 6 citations / Add more citations

Similar books and articles

Monthly downloads

Added to index


Total downloads

54 ( #63,378 of 1,726,249 )

Recent downloads (6 months)

17 ( #45,081 of 1,726,249 )

How can I increase my downloads?

My notes
Sign in to use this feature

Start a new thread
There  are no threads in this forum
Nothing in this forum yet.