Changing minds in a changing world

Philosophical Studies 159 (2):219-239 (2012)
Abstract
I defend a general rule for updating beliefs that takes into account both the impact of new evidence and changes in the subject’s location. The rule combines standard conditioning with a shifting operation that moves the center of each doxastic possibility forward to the next point where information arrives. I show that well-known arguments for conditioning lead to this combination when centered information is taken into account. I also discuss how my proposal relates to other recent proposals, what results it delivers for puzzles like the Sleeping Beauty problem, and whether there are diachronic constraints on rational belief at all.
Keywords Belief revision  Update  Conditionalisation  Self-location  Centered worlds
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References found in this work BETA
Persi Diaconis & Sandy L. Zabell (1982). Updating Subjective Probability. Journal of the American Statistical Association 77 (380):822-830.
Adam Elga (2004). Defeating Dr. Evil with Self-Locating Belief. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 69 (2):383–396.

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Citations of this work BETA
Clas Weber (2013). Centered Communication. Philosophical Studies 166 (1):205-223.
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