Local, general and universal prediction strategies: A game-theoretical approach to the problem of induction
David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
In this paper I present a game-theoretical approach to the problem of induction. I investigate the comparative success of prediction methods by mathematical analysis and computer programming. Hume's problem lies in the fact that although the success of object-inductive prediction strategies is quite robust, they cannot be universally optimal. My proposal towards a solution of the problem of induction is meta-induction. I show that there exist meta-inductive prediction strategies whose success is universally optimal, modulo short-run losses which are upper-bounded. I then turn to the implications of my approach for the evolution of cognition. In the final section I suggest a revision of the paradigm of bounded rationality by introducing the distinction between local, general and universal prediction strategies.
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library||
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Mark Sprevak (2005). The Frame Problem and the Treatment of Prediction. In L. Magnani & R. Dossena (eds.), Computing, Philosophy and Cognition. 4--349.
Simon Blackburn (1973). Reason and Prediction. London,Cambridge University Press.
John D. Norton (2010). There Are No Universal Rules for Induction. Philosophy of Science 77 (5):765-777.
Giacomo Bonanno (2001). Branching Time, Perfect Information Games and Backward Induction. Games and Economic Behavior 36 (1):57-73.
Samuel Rathmanner & Marcus Hutter (2011). A Philosophical Treatise of Universal Induction. Entropy 13 (6):1076-1136.
Gerhard Schurz (2004). Meta-Induction and the Prediction Game: A New View on Hume's Problem. In W. Loffler * P. Weingartner (ed.), Knowledge and Belief. Wissen Und Glauben. Wein.
Eckhart Arnold (2010). Can the Best-Alternative Justification Solve Hume's Problem? On the Limits of a Promising Approach. Philosophy of Science 77 (4):584-593.
Gerhard Schurz (2008). The Meta-Inductivist's Winning Strategy in the Prediction Game: A New Approach to Hume's Problem. Philosophy of Science 75 (3):278-305.
Added to index2009-01-28
Total downloads23 ( #86,867 of 1,679,369 )
Recent downloads (6 months)1 ( #182,933 of 1,679,369 )
How can I increase my downloads?