David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Episteme 6 (2):200-220 (2009)
The justification of induction is of central significance for cross-cultural social epistemology. Different ‘epistemological cultures’ do not only differ in their beliefs, but also in their belief-forming methods and evaluation standards. For an objective comparison of different methods and standards, one needs (meta-)induction over past successes. A notorious obstacle to the problem of justifying induction lies in the fact that the success of object-inductive prediction methods (i.e., methods applied at the level of events) can neither be shown to be universally reliable (Hume's insight) nor to be universally optimal. My proposal towards a solution of the problem of induction is meta-induction. The meta-inductivist applies the principle of induction to all competing prediction methods that are accessible to her. By means of mathematical analysis and computer simulations of prediction games I show that there exist meta-inductive prediction strategies whose success is universally optimal among all accessible prediction strategies, modulo a small short-run loss. The proposed justification of meta-induction is mathematically analytical. It implies, however, an a posteriori justification of object-induction based on the experiences in our world. In the final section I draw conclusions about the significance of meta-induction for the social spread of knowledge and the cultural evolution of cognition, and I relate my results to other simulation results which utilize meta-inductive learning mechanisms
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
Gerd Gigerenzer (1999). Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. Oxford University Press.
Irving J. Good (1983). Good Thinking: The Foundations of Probability and its Applications. Univ Minnesota Pr.
Robin M. Hogarth & Natalia Karelaia (2006). “Take-the-Best” and Other Simple Strategies: Why and When They Work “Well” with Binary Cues. Theory and Decision 61 (3):205-249.
Kevin Kelly (1996). The Logic of Reliable Inquiry. Oxford University Press, USA.
John D. Norton (2003). A Material Theory of Induction. Philosophy of Science 70 (4):647-670.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
John Worrall (2000). Tracking Track Records. Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 74 (1):207-35.
John D. Norton (2006). How the Formal Equivalence of Grue and Green Defeats What is New in the New Riddle of Induction. Synthese 150 (2):185 - 207.
John Worrall (2000). Tracking Track Records, II. Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 74 (1):207–235.
Giacomo Bonanno (2001). Branching Time, Perfect Information Games and Backward Induction. Games and Economic Behavior 36 (1):57-73.
F. John Clendinnen (1966). Induction and Objectivity. Philosophy of Science 33 (3):215-229.
Simon Blackburn (1973). Reason and Prediction. London,Cambridge University Press.
Gerhard Schurz (2004). Meta-Induction and the Prediction Game: A New View on Hume's Problem. In W. Loffler * P. Weingartner (ed.), Knowledge and Belief. Wissen Und Glauben. Wein.
Eckhart Arnold (2010). Can the Best-Alternative Justification Solve Hume's Problem? On the Limits of a Promising Approach. Philosophy of Science 77 (4):584-593.
Gerhard Schurz, Local, General and Universal Prediction Strategies: A Game-Theoretical Approach to the Problem of Induction.
Gerhard Schurz (2008). The Meta-Inductivist's Winning Strategy in the Prediction Game: A New Approach to Hume's Problem. Philosophy of Science 75 (3):278-305.
Added to index2010-07-11
Total downloads34 ( #56,311 of 1,140,268 )
Recent downloads (6 months)6 ( #32,080 of 1,140,268 )
How can I increase my downloads?