David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
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Review of Symbolic Logic 5 (4):574-612 (2012)
Systems of logico-probabilistic (LP) reasoning characterize inference from conditional assertions that express high conditional probabilities. In this paper we investigate four prominent LP systems, the systems O, P, Z, and QC. These systems differ in the number of inferences they licence (O ⊂ P ⊂ Z ⊂ QC). LP systems that license more inferences enjoy the possible reward of deriving more true and informative conclusions, but with this possible reward comes the risk of drawing more false or uninformative conclusions. In the first part of the paper, we present the four systems and extend each of them by theorems that allow one to compute almost-tight lower-probability-bounds for the conclusion of an inference, given lower-probability-bounds for its premises. In the second part of the paper, we investigate by means of computer simulations which of the four systems provides the best balance of reward versus risk. Our results suggest that system Z offers the best balance.
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References found in this work BETA
David K. Lewis (1973). Counterfactuals. Blackwell Publishers.
Rudolf Carnap (1962). Logical Foundations of Probability. Chicago]University of Chicago Press.
Judea Pearl (1988). Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems. Morgan Kaufmann.
Dorothy Edgington (1995). On Conditionals. Mind 104 (414):235-329.
Citations of this work BETA
Matthias Unterhuber & Gerhard Schurz (2014). Completeness and Correspondence in Chellas–Segerberg Semantics. Studia Logica 102 (4):891-911.
Paul D. Thorn & Gerhard Schurz (2014). A Utility Based Evaluation of Logico-Probabilistic Systems. Studia Logica 102 (4):867-890.
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