REWARD VERSUS RISK IN UNCERTAIN INFERENCE: THEOREMS AND SIMULATIONS

Review of Symbolic Logic 5 (4):574-612 (2012)
Abstract
Systems of logico-probabilistic (LP) reasoning characterize inference from conditional assertions that express high conditional probabilities. In this paper we investigate four prominent LP systems, the systems O, P, Z, and QC. These systems differ in the number of inferences they licence (O ⊂ P ⊂ Z ⊂ QC). LP systems that license more inferences enjoy the possible reward of deriving more true and informative conclusions, but with this possible reward comes the risk of drawing more false or uninformative conclusions. In the first part of the paper, we present the four systems and extend each of them by theorems that allow one to compute almost-tight lower-probability-bounds for the conclusion of an inference, given lower-probability-bounds for its premises. In the second part of the paper, we investigate by means of computer simulations which of the four systems provides the best balance of reward versus risk. Our results suggest that system Z offers the best balance.
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
Options
 Save to my reading list
Follow the author(s)
My bibliography
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Revision history Request removal from index
 
Download options
PhilPapers Archive


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy on self-archival     Papers currently archived: 9,357
External links
  •   Try with proxy.
  • Through your library Configure
    References found in this work BETA
    Ernest W. Adams (1986). On the Logic of High Probability. Journal of Philosophical Logic 15 (3):255 - 279.
    Ernest W. Adams (1974). The Logic of 'Almost All'. Journal of Philosophical Logic 3 (1/2):3 - 17.

    View all 34 references

    Citations of this work BETA
    Similar books and articles
    Roger M. Cooke (1986). Probabilistic Reasoning in Expert Systems Reconstructed in Probability Semantics. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1986:409 - 421.
    Elwin Myers (2010). Influence of Economic Reward and Punishment on Unethical Behavior. Business and Professional Ethics Journal 29 (1/4):155-174.
    Eric A. Salzen (2000). Affect Systems and Neural Systems. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (2):216-217.
    Edmund T. Rolls (2000). Précis of the Brain and Emotion. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (2):177-191.
    Analytics

    Monthly downloads

    Added to index

    2012-08-21

    Total downloads

    7 ( #149,727 of 1,088,404 )

    Recent downloads (6 months)

    2 ( #42,750 of 1,088,404 )

    How can I increase my downloads?

    My notes
    Sign in to use this feature


    Discussion
    Start a new thread
    Order:
    There  are no threads in this forum
    Nothing in this forum yet.