The meta-inductivist's winning strategy in the prediction game: A new approach to Hume's problem

Philosophy of Science 75 (3):278-305 (2008)
Abstract
This article suggests a ‘best alternative' justification of induction (in the sense of Reichenbach) which is based on meta-induction . The meta-inductivist applies the principle of induction to all competing prediction methods which are accessible to her. It is demonstrated, and illustrated by computer simulations, that there exist meta-inductivistic prediction strategies whose success is approximately optimal among all accessible prediction methods in arbitrary possible worlds, and which dominate the success of every noninductive prediction strategy. The proposed justification of meta-induction is mathematically analytical. It implies, however, an a posteriori justification of object-induction based on the experiences in our world. *Received November 2005; revised March 2008. †To contact the author, please write to: Department of Philosophy, University of Duesseldorf, Universitaetsstrasse 1, Geb. 23.21, Duesseldorf, Germany D-40225; e-mail: gerhard.schurz@phil-fak.uni-duesseldorf.de.
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DOI 10.1086/592550
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References found in this work BETA
Hans Reichenbach (1949). The Theory of Probability. Berkeley, University of California Press.

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Citations of this work BETA
Remco Heesen (2015). How Much Evidence Should One Collect? Philosophical Studies 172 (9):2299-2313.

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