Forecasting with Imprecise/Indeterminate Probabilities [IP] – some preliminary findings
| Abstract | Part 1 Background on de Finetti’s twin criteria of coherence: Coherence1: 2-sided previsions free from dominance through a Book. Coherence2: Forecasts free from dominance under Brier (squared error) score. Part 2 IP theory based on a scoring rule | |||||||||
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Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter (2007). Human Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities: Modus Ponens and Denying the Antecedent. In Proceedings of the 5 T H International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications.
Martin Peterson (2006). Indeterminate Preferences. Philosophical Studies 130 (2):297-320.
Timothy Herron, Teddy Seidenfeld & Larry Wasserman (1997). Divisive Conditioning: Further Results on Dilation. Philosophy of Science 64 (3):411-444.
Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane (2010). Coherent Choice Functions Under Uncertainty. Synthese 172 (1).
Adam Elga (2010). Subjective Probabilities Should Be Sharp. Philosophers' Imprint 10 (05).
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