David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Minds and Machines 19 (1):61-92 (2009)
The ontology of decision theory has been subject to considerable debate in the past, and discussion of just how we ought to view decision problems has revealed more than one interesting problem, as well as suggested some novel modifications of classical decision theory. In this paper it will be argued that Bayesian, or evidential, decision-theoretic characterizations of decision situations fail to adequately account for knowledge concerning the causal connections between acts, states, and outcomes in decision situations, and so they are incomplete. Second, it will be argues that when we attempt to incorporate the knowledge of such causal connections into Bayesian decision theory, a substantial technical problem arises for which there is no currently available solution that does not suffer from some damning objection or other. From a broader perspective, this then throws into question the use of decision theory as a model of human or machine planning.
|Keywords||Artificial intelligence Bayesianism Causality Conditionals Counterfactuals Decision theory Deliberation Planning Probabilities Rationality Utility|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
Gerd Gigerenzer (1999). Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. Oxford University Press.
Richard Jeffrey (1983). The Logic of Decision. University of Chicago Press.
David K. Lewis (1973). Counterfactuals. Blackwell Publishers.
Leonard J. Savage (1954). The Foundations of Statistics. Wiley Publications in Statistics.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Patrick Maher (1990). Symptomatic Acts and the Value of Evidence in Causal Decision Theory. Philosophy of Science 57 (3):479-498.
Ellery Eells (1984). Causal Decision Theory. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1984:177 - 200.
Frank Arntzenius (2008). No Regrets, Or: Edith Piaf Revamps Decision Theory. Erkenntnis 68 (2):277-297.
John Cantwell (2010). On an Alleged Counter-Example to Causal Decision Theory. Synthese 173 (2):127-152.
Andy Egan (2007). Some Counterexamples to Causal Decision Theory. Philosophical Review 116 (1):93-114.
John L. Pollock, Against Optimality: Logical Foundations for Decision-Theoretic Planning in Autonomous Agents.
Daniel Hunter & Reed Richter (1978). Counterfactuals and Newcomb's Paradox. Synthese 39 (2):249 - 261.
David Lewis (1981). Causal Decision Theory. Australasian Journal of Philosophy 59 (1):5 – 30.
Added to index2009-01-28
Total downloads69 ( #61,222 of 1,796,319 )
Recent downloads (6 months)4 ( #207,429 of 1,796,319 )
How can I increase my downloads?