David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Synthese 135 (3):415 - 430 (2003)
I discuss two versions of the doomsday argument. According to ``Gott's Line'',the fact that the human race has existed for 200,000 years licences the predictionthat it will last between 5100 and 7.8 million more years. According to ``Leslie'sWedge'', the fact that I currently exist is evidence that increases the plausibilityof the hypothesis that the human race will come to an end sooner rather than later.Both arguments rest on substantive assumptions about the sampling process thatunderlies our observations. These sampling assumptions have testable consequences,and so the sampling assumptions themselves must be regarded as empirical claims.The result of testing some of these consequences is that both doomsday argumentsare empirically disconfirmed.
|Keywords||Philosophy Philosophy Epistemology Logic Metaphysics Philosophy of Language|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
Dennis Dieks (2007). Reasoning About the Future: Doom and Beauty. [REVIEW] Synthese 156 (3):427 - 439.
Bradley Monton & Brian Kierland (2006). How to Predict Future Duration From Present Age. Philosophical Quarterly 56 (222):16 - 38.
Kevin Nelson (2009). How and How Not to Make Predictions with Temporal Copernicanism. Synthese 166 (1):91 - 111.
Similar books and articles
Paul Franceschi (1999). The Doomsday Argument and Hempel's Problem. [Journal (on-Line/Unpaginated)] 29 (1).
N. Bostrom (1999). The Doomsday Argument is Alive and Kicking. Mind 108 (431):539-551.
George F. Sowers Jr (2002). The Demise of the Doomsday Argument. Mind 111 (441):37 - 45.
George F. Sowers Jr (2002). The Demise of the Doomsday Argument. Mind 111 (441):37-46.
Alasdair M. Richmond (2008). Doomsday, Bishop Ussher and Simulated Worlds. Ratio 21 (2):201–217.
Bradley Monton (2003). The Doomsday Argument Without Knowledge of Birth Rank. Philosophical Quarterly 53 (210):79–82.
Ken D. Olum (2002). The Doomsday Argument and the Number of Possible Observers. Philosophical Quarterly 52 (207):164-184.
Added to index2009-01-28
Total downloads19 ( #98,760 of 1,413,361 )
Recent downloads (6 months)1 ( #154,160 of 1,413,361 )
How can I increase my downloads?