David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Theory and Decision 66 (2):103 - 148 (2009)
There are narrowest bounds for P(h) when P(e) = y and P(h/e) = x, which bounds collapse to x as y goes to 1. A theorem for these bounds -- bounds for probable modus ponens -- entails a principle for updating on possibly uncertain evidence subject to these bounds that is a generalization of the principle for updating by conditioning on certain evidence. This way of updating on possibly uncertain evidence is appropriate when updating by ’probability kinematics’ or ’Jeffrey-conditioning’ is, and apparently in countless other cases as well. A more complicated theorem due to Karl Wagner -- bounds for probable modus tollens -- registers narrowest bounds for P(not h) when P(not e) = y and P(e/h) = x. This theorem serves another principle for updating on possibly uncertain evidence that might be termed ’contraditioning’, though it is for a way of updating that seems in practice to be frequently not appropriate. It is definitely not a way of putting down a theory -- for example, a random-chanc
|Keywords||sentential probability logic Jeffrey-conditioning hyperreal probabilities fine-tuning|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
Brad Armendt (1980). Is There a Dutch Book Argument for Probability Kinematics? Philosophy of Science 47 (4):583-588.
Richard Bradley (2005). Radical Probabilism and Bayesian Conditioning. Philosophy of Science 72 (2):342-364.
Janina Hosiasson-Lindenbaum (1940). On Confirmation. Journal of Symbolic Logic 5 (4):133-148.
Richard C. Jeffrey (2004). Subjective Probability: The Real Thing. Cambridge University Press.
Abner Shimony (1999). Can the Fundamental Laws of Nature Be the Results of Evolution? In Jeremy Butterfield & Constantine Pagonis (eds.), From Physics to Philosophy. Cambridge University Press. 208--223.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Carl G. Wagner (2004). Modus Tollens Probabilized. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 55 (4):747-753.
James Hawthorne (2004). Three Models of Sequential Belief Updating on Uncertain Evidence. Journal of Philosophical Logic 33 (1):89-123.
Jordan Howard Sobel, Hosiasson-Lindenbaum/Kolmogorov Probability Theory: Solutions to Exercises in Appendix a of Extended Version of “Modus Ponens and Modus Tollens ….
Paul A. Klaczynski & David B. Daniel (2005). Individual Differences in Conditional Reasoning: A Dual-Process Account. Thinking and Reasoning 11 (4):305 – 325.
Seth Yalcin (2012). A Counterexample to Modus Tollens. Journal of Philosophical Logic 41 (6):1001-1024.
Colin Howson (2009). Sorites is No Threat to Modus Ponens: A Reply to Kochan. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 23 (2):209-212.
Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter (2007). Human Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities: Modus Ponens and Denying the Antecedent. In Proceedings of the 5 T H International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. 347--356.
Susanne Bobzien (2002). The Development of Modus Ponens in Antiquity: From Aristotle to the 2nd Century AD. Phronesis 47 (4):359-394.
Sieghard Beller & Gregory Kuhnm (2007). What Causal Conditional Reasoning Tells Us About People's Understanding of Causality. Thinking and Reasoning 13 (4):426 – 460.
Paul D. Thorn (2014). Defeasible Conditionalization. Journal of Philosophical Logic 43:283-302.
Daniel Osherson & Jiaying Zhao (2011). Updating Beliefs in Light of Uncertain Evidence: Descriptive Assessment of Jeffrey's Rule. Thinking and Reasoning 16 (4):288-307.
Joshua Schechter & David Enoch (2006). Meaning and Justification: The Case of Modus Ponens. Noûs 40 (4):687 - 715.
Added to index2012-06-17
Total downloads130 ( #8,177 of 1,140,334 )
Recent downloads (6 months)72 ( #923 of 1,140,334 )
How can I increase my downloads?