David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Philosophy of Science 77 (4):565-583 (2010)
This article calls into question the charge that frequentist testing is susceptible to the base-rate fallacy. It is argued that the apparent similarity between examples like the Harvard Medical School test and frequentist testing is highly misleading. A closer scrutiny reveals that such examples have none of the basic features of a proper frequentist test, such as legitimate data, hypotheses, test statistics, and sampling distributions. Indeed, the relevant error probabilities are replaced with the false positive/negative rates that constitute deductive calculations based on known probabilities among events. As a result, the ampliative dimension of frequentist induction—learning from data about the underlying data-generating mechanism—is missing. *Received August 2009; revised January 2010. †To contact the author, please write to: Department of Economics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061; e-mail: email@example.com
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
Deborah G. Mayo (2001). Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 15 (1):455-459.
Peter Achinstein (2001). The Book of Evidence. Oxford University Press.
Ian Hacking (1976). Logic of Statistical Inference. Cambridge University Press.
Deborah G. Mayo & Aris Spanos (2004). Methodology in Practice: Statistical Misspecification Testing. Philosophy of Science 71 (5):1007-1025.
D. G. Mayo & A. Spanos (2004). Methodology in Practice: Statistical Misspecification Practice. Philosophy of Science 71 (5):1007-1025.
Citations of this work BETA
David Teira (2013). A Contractarian Solution to the Experimenter’s Regress. Philosophy of Science 80 (5):709-720.
Aris Spanos (2013). Who Should Be Afraid of the Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox? Philosophy of Science 80 (1):73-93.
Aris Spanos & Deborah G. Mayo (forthcoming). Error Statistical Modeling and Inference: Where Methodology Meets Ontology. Synthese:1-23.
Aris Spanos (2013). A Frequentist Interpretation of Probability for Model-Based Inductive Inference. Synthese 190 (9):1555-1585.
Similar books and articles
Laura Macchi (1997). Pragmatically Before Ecologically Valid Tasks. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 20 (4):778-779.
Jonathan E. Adler (1997). If the Base Rate Fallacy is a Fallacy, Does It Matter How Frequently It is Committed? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 20 (4):774-775.
Daniel Greco (2011). Significance Testing in Theory and Practice. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 62 (3):607-637.
Brian J. Gibbs (1997). Evolving Null Hypotheses and the Base Rate Fallacy: A Functional Interpretation of Scientific Myth. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 20 (4):776-777.
J. Neyman (1977). Frequentist Probability and Frequentist Statistics. Synthese 36 (1):97 - 131.
Jonathan J. Koehler (1997). A Farewell to Normative Null Hypothesis Testing in Base Rate Research. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 20 (4):780-782.
Aris Spanos (2010). The Discovery of Argon: A Case for Learning From Data? Philosophy of Science 77 (3):359-380.
Deborah G. Mayo & Aris Spanos (2006). Severe Testing as a Basic Concept in a Neyman–Pearson Philosophy of Induction. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 57 (2):323-357.
C. Howson (2013). Exhuming the No-Miracles Argument. Analysis 73 (2):205-211.
Ranald R. Macdonald (1997). Base Rates and Randomness. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 20 (4):778-778.
Adam La Caze (2010). Review of Deborah G. Mayo, Aris Spanos (Eds.), Error and Inference: Recent Exchanges on Experimental Reasoning, Reliability, and the Objectivity and Rationality of Science. [REVIEW] Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews 2010 (7).
P. D. Magnus & Craig Callender (2004). Realist Ennui and the Base Rate Fallacy. Philosophy of Science 71 (3):320-338.
Robert W. Frick (1998). Chow's Defense of Null-Hypothesis Testing: Too Traditional? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 21 (2):199-199.
Aris Spanos (2010). On a New Philosophy of Frequentist Inference : Exchanges with David Cox and Deborah G. Mayo. In Deborah G. Mayo & Aris Spanos (eds.), Error and Inference: Recent Exchanges on Experimental Reasoning, Reliability, and the Objectivity and Rationality of Science. Cambridge University Press 315.
Andrés Rivadulla (1991). Mathematical Statistics and Metastatistical Analysis. Erkenntnis 34 (2):211 - 236.
Added to index2010-10-03
Total downloads31 ( #102,719 of 1,726,249 )
Recent downloads (6 months)3 ( #231,316 of 1,726,249 )
How can I increase my downloads?