David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Journal of Critical Realism 11 (3):277-295 (2012)
Based on metatheoretical considerations, this article discusses what kinds of traffic forecasts are possible and what kinds are impossible to make with any reasonable degree of accuracy. It will be argued on ontological and epistemological grounds that it is inherently impossible to make exact predictions about the magnitude of the ‘general’ traffic growth 20–30 years ahead, since many of the influencing factors depend on inherently unpredictable geopolitical trajectories as well as contested political decision-making. Due to the context-dependency of each particular planning situation, it is also hardly possible to make exact, quantitative predictions about the impact of implementing a specific infrastructure project, compared to ‘doing nothing’. Instead of relying on traffic model simulations as the general forecasting and assessment tool in transport planning, we propose to separate the so-called strategic, tactical and operational levels of traffic forecasting into three distinct methodological approaches reflecting the different degrees of openness/closure of the systems at hand: scenario analyses at the strategic level; theory-informed, mainly qualitative analyses supplemented with simple calculations at the tactical level; while more traditional micro-simulations should be applied only at a detailed operational level
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
No categories specified
(categorize this paper)
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
E. Wiersma & N. Mastenbroek (1998). Measurement of Vessel Traffic Service Operator Performance. AI and Society 12 (1-2):78-86.
Robert S. Goldfarb, H. O. Stekler & Joel David (2005). Methodological Issues in Forecasting: Insights From the Egregious Business Forecast Errors of Late 1930. Journal of Economic Methodology 12 (4):517-542.
Sara Svensson & Sven Ove Hansson (2007). Protecting People in Research: A Comparison Between Biomedical and Traffic Research. [REVIEW] Science and Engineering Ethics 13 (1):99-115.
Andrzej Górski (2006). The Responsible Conduct of Basic and Clinical Research. Science and Engineering Ethics 12 (1):3-4.
Peter Ayton, Alice Pott & Najat Elwakili (2007). Affective Forecasting: Why Can't People Predict Their Emotions? Thinking and Reasoning 13 (1):62 – 80.
Brian Weatherson (2007). The Bayesian and the Dogmatist. Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 107 (1pt2):169 - 185.
Stefan Dragulinescu (2012). The Problem of Processes and Transitions: Are Diseases Phase Kinds? [REVIEW] Medicine, Health Care and Philosophy 15 (1):79-89.
Nigel Harvey (2007). Use of Heuristics: Insights From Forecasting Research. Thinking and Reasoning 13 (1):5 – 24.
Nigel Harvey Teresa Ewart Robert West (1997). Effects of Data Noise on Statistical Judgement. Thinking and Reasoning 3 (2):111 – 132.
Muhammad Ali Khalidi (2015). Three Kinds of Social Kinds. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 90 (1):96-112.
Simone Burg & Anke Gorp (2005). Understanding Moral Responsibility in the Design of Trailers. Science and Engineering Ethics 11 (2):235-256.
Guanchun Wang, Sanjeev Kulkarni & Daniel N. Osherson, Improving Aggregated Forecasts of Probability.
Simone van der Burg & Anke van Gorp (2005). Understanding Moral Responsibility in the Design of Trailers. Science and Engineering Ethics 11 (2):235-256.
Added to index2012-07-11
Total downloads10 ( #315,668 of 1,790,336 )
Recent downloads (6 months)1 ( #431,681 of 1,790,336 )
How can I increase my downloads?