David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jonathan Jenkins Ichikawa
Jack Alan Reynolds
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Philosophical Review 117 (4):555-606 (2008)
Can self-locating beliefs be relevant to non-self-locating claims? Traditional Bayesian modeling techniques have trouble answering this question because their updating rule fails when applied to situations involving contextsensitivity. This essay develops a fully general framework for modeling stories involving context-sensitive claims. The key innovations are a revised conditionalization rule and a principle relating models of the same story with different modeling languages. The essay then applies the modeling framework to the Sleeping Beauty Problem, showing that when Beauty awakens her degree of belief in heads should be one-third. This demonstrates that it can be rational for an agent who gains only self-locating beliefs between two times to alter her degree of belief in a non-self-locating claim
|Keywords||self-location Conditionalization Bayesianism Sleeping Beauty Problem context-sensitivity|
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Citations of this work BETA
Darren Bradley (2011). Confirmation in a Branching World: The Everett Interpretation and Sleeping Beauty. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 62 (2):323-342.
Sarah Moss (2012). Updating as Communication. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 85 (2):225-248.
Bryan Pickel (2016). Frontloading, Supposition, and Contraction. Philosophical Quarterly 66 (264):559-578.
Charles T. Sebens & Sean M. Carroll (forthcoming). Self-Locating Uncertainty and the Origin of Probability in Everettian Quantum Mechanics. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science:axw004.
Kenny Easwaran (2011). Bayesianism I: Introduction and Arguments in Favor. Philosophy Compass 6 (5):312-320.
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