David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Thinking and Reasoning 14 (3):209-230 (2008)
Three experiments investigated the effect of rarity on people's selection and interpretation of data in a variant of the pseudodiagnosticity task. For familiar (Experiment 1) but not for arbitrary (Experiment 3) materials, participants were more likely to select evidence so as to complete a likelihood ratio when the initial evidence they received was a single likelihood concerning a rare feature. This rarity effect with familiar materials was replicated in Experiment 2 where it was shown that participants were relatively insensitive to explicit manipulations of the likely diagnosticity of rare evidence. In contrast to the effects for data selection, there was an effect of rarity on confidence ratings after receipt of a single likelihood for arbitrary but not for familiar materials. It is suggested that selecting diagnostic evidence necessitates explicit consideration of the alternative hypothesis and that consideration of the possible consequences of the evidence for the alternative weakens the rarity effect in confidence ratings. Paradoxically, although rarity effects in evidence selection and confidence ratings are in the spirit of Bayesian reasoning, the effect on confidence ratings appears to rely on participants thinking less about the alternative hypothesis
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Mike Oaksford (2002). Contrast Classes and Matching Bias as Explanations of the Effects of Negation on Conditional Reasoning. Thinking and Reasoning 8 (2):135 – 151.
Aidan Feeney, Jonathan St B. T. Evans & John Clibbens (2000). Background Beliefs and Evidence Interpretation. Thinking and Reasoning 6 (2):97 – 124.
Hiroshi Yama (2001). Matching Versus Optimal Data Selection in the Wason Selection Task. Thinking and Reasoning 7 (3):295 – 311.
Mike Oaksford, Nick Chater & Becki Grainger (1999). Probabilistic Effects in Data Selection. Thinking and Reasoning 5 (3):193 – 243.
Klaus Oberauer, Oliver Wilhelm & Ricardo Rosas Diaz (1999). Bayesian Rationality for the Wason Selection Task? A Test of Optimal Data Selection Theory. Thinking and Reasoning 5 (2):115 – 144.
Marcus Selart, Ole Boe & Tommy Garling (1999). Reasoning About Outcome Probabilities and Values in Preference Reversals. Thinking and Reasoning 5 (2):175 – 188.
Aidan Feeney & Evan Heit (2011). Properties of the Diversity Effect in Category-Based Inductive Reasoning. Thinking and Reasoning 17 (2):156 - 181.
Giuliana A. L. Mazzoni, Elizabeth F. Loftus & Irving Kirsch (2001). Changing Beliefs About Implausible Autobiographical Events: A Little Plausibility Goes a Long Way. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 7 (1):51.
Aidan Feeney, Jonathan Evans & Simon Venn (2008). Rarity, Pseudodiagnosticity and Bayesian Reasoning. Thinking and Reasoning 14 (3):209 – 230.
Added to index2010-07-12
Total downloads14 ( #246,547 of 1,792,914 )
Recent downloads (6 months)7 ( #119,751 of 1,792,914 )
How can I increase my downloads?