Probability is composed. The Frequency Interpretation of Probability Revisited.
| Abstract | In the following we propose a variant of the frequency interpretation of probability of Richard von Mises; one of our aims is to address recent criticisms that have been formulated against this interpretation. Following von Mises, we will argue that (objective) probability can only be defined for events that can be repeated in similar conditions, and that exhibit ‘frequency stabilization’. The central idea of the present article is that the mentioned ‘conditions’ should be well-defined and ‘partitioned’. More precisely, we will divide probabilistic systems into object, environment, and probing subsystem, and show that such partitioning allows to solve problems. By the same token we will be able to derive a definition of what ‘similar events’ are – a problematic concept in traditional interpretations. Our general conclusion will be that the probability of an event or system is only defined if all subsystems that compose the latter are defined – in a slogan: probability is composed. | |||||||||
| Keywords | Interpretation of Probability | |||||||||
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