Abstract

Early modern Europe was unusually rich by 1700, compared to the rest of the world. We argue that the 'European Marriage Pattern' (EMP) contributed to this phenomenon. By raising the marriage age of women, and ensuring that a substantial proportion remained celibate, the EMP reduced fertility by up to 40%, and raised average wages by a quarter. We present a model that explains how fertility limitation evolved. We emphasize changes in the production structure of the agricultural sector following the 14th century Black Death. Rising wages after 1349 translated into greater demand for 'luxury products', such as wool and meat. Their production was subject to economies of scale, making it profitable for large farms to hire outside labor. It was also land-using and labor-saving. Women's wages increased, and a period of working as a servant became a common feature of the life cycle of European women. Marriage was thus delayed, and fertility reduced. The Black Death set into motion a virtuous cycle of higher wages and fertility decline that contributed to unusually high per capita incomes.