David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Theory and Decision 53 (2):95-135 (2002)
The justification of Bayes' rule by cognitive rationality principles is undertaken by extending the propositional axiom systems usually proposed in two contexts of belief change: revising and updating. Probabilistic belief change axioms are introduced, either by direct transcription of the set-theoretic ones, or in a stronger way but nevertheless in the spirit of the underlying propositional principles. Weak revising axioms are shown to be satisfied by a General Conditioning rule, extending Bayes' rule but also compatible with others, and weak updating axioms by a General Imaging rule, extending Lewis' rule. Strong axioms (equivalent to the MillerâPopper axiom system) are necessary to justify Bayes' rule in a revising context, and justify in fact an extended Bayes' rule which applies, even if the message has zero probability
|Keywords||Bayes rule belief revision cognitive rationality probability revising probability updating|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
Jean Baratgin & Guy Politzer (2007). The Psychology of Dynamic Probability Judgment: Order Effect, Normative Theories, and Experimental Methodology. Mind and Society 6 (1):53-66.
Jean Baratgin & Bernard Walliser (2010). Sleeping Beauty and the Absent-Minded Driver. Theory and Decision 69 (3):489-496.
Similar books and articles
Cesaltina Pacheco Pires (2002). A Rule For Updating Ambiguous Beliefs. Theory and Decision 53 (2):137-152.
Glenn Shafer (1981). Jeffrey's Rule of Conditioning. Philosophy of Science 48 (3):337-362.
Hans Van Den Berg, Dick Hoekzema & Hans Radder (1990). Accardi on Quantum Theory and the "Fifth Axiom" of Probability. Philosophy of Science 57 (1):149 - 157.
William Talbott, Bayesian Epistemology. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
Jürgen Humburg (1987). The Bayes Rule is Not Sufficient to Justify or Describe Inductive Reasoning. Erkenntnis 26 (3):379 - 390.
Robert C. Kerber (2002). Markovnikov's Rule in History and Pedagogy. Foundations of Chemistry 4 (1):61-72.
R. D. Rosenkrantz (1992). The Justification of Induction. Philosophy of Science 59 (4):527-539.
Karsten R. Stueber (2005). How to Think About Rules and Rule Following. Philosophy of the Social Sciences 35 (3):307-323.
Jussi Suikkanen (2008). A Dilemma for Rule-Consequentialism. Philosophia 36 (1):141-150.
Jeffrey Foss (1976). A Rule of Minimal Rationality: The Logical Link Between Beliefs and Values. Inquiry 19 (1-4):341 – 353.
Wes Sharrock & Graham Button (1999). Do the Right Thing! Rule Finitism, Rule Scepticism and Rule Following. Human Studies 22 (2-4):193-210.
Igor Douven & Jan-Willem Romeijn (2011). A New Resolution of the Judy Benjamin Problem. Mind 120 (479):637-670.
Added to index2010-09-02
Total downloads7 ( #180,112 of 1,096,632 )
Recent downloads (6 months)3 ( #105,642 of 1,096,632 )
How can I increase my downloads?