David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Cambridge Journal of Economics 26 (1):47-62 (2002)
Uncertainty plays an important role in The General Theory, particularly in the theory of interest rates. Keynes did not provide a theory of uncertainty, but he did make some enlightening remarks about the direction he thought such a theory should take. I argue that some modern innovations in the theory of probability allow us to build a theory which captures these Keynesian insights. If this is the right theory, however, uncertainty cannot carry its weight in Keynes’s arguments. This does not mean that the conclusions of these arguments are necessarily mistaken; in their best formulation they may succeed with merely an appeal to risk.
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
James M. Joyce (2005). How Probabilities Reflect Evidence. Philosophical Perspectives 19 (1):153–178.
Susanna Rinard (2013). Against Radical Credal Imprecision. Thought: A Journal of Philosophy 2 (1):157-165.
Brian Weatherson (2007). The Bayesian and the Dogmatist. Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 107 (1pt2):169 - 185.
Jeff Kasser (forthcoming). Two Conceptions of Weight of Evidence in Peirce’s Illustrations of the Logic of Science. Erkenntnis:1-20.
Sven Ove Hansson (2008). Do We Need Second-Order Probabilities? Dialectica 62 (4):525-533.
Similar books and articles
John Quiggin (2001). Production Under Uncertainty and Choice Under Uncertainty in the Emergence of Generalized Expected Utility Theory. Theory and Decision 51 (2/4):125-144.
Matthew C. Wilson (2009). Creativity, Probability and Uncertainty. Journal of Economic Methodology 16 (1):45-56.
Bradley Bateman (1996). Keynes's Uncertain Revolution. University of Michigan Press.
Greg Hill (1994). Misreading Keynes: Reply to Garrison. Critical Review 8 (3):441-446.
Giuseppe Fontana & Bill Gerrard (1999). Disequilibrium States and Adjustment Processes: Towards a Historical-Time Analysis of Behaviour Under Uncertainty. Philosophical Psychology 12 (3):311 – 324.
Samira Guennif (2002). From Knowledge to Individual Action. Confidence, the Hidden Face of Uncertainty. A Rereading of the Works of Knight and Keynes. Mind and Society 3 (2):13-28.
Victoria Chick (2003). Theory, Method and Mode of Thought in Keynes'sGeneral Theory. Journal of Economic Methodology 10 (3):307-327.
Guido Fioretti (2001). Von Kries and the Other ‘German Logicians’: Non-Numerical Probabilities Before Keynes. Economics and Philosophy 17 (2):245-273.
Marcelo Tsuji (2000). Partial Structures and Jeffrey-Keynes Algebras. Synthese 125 (1-2):283-299.
Roger W. Garrison (1992). Keynesian Splenetics: From Social Philosophy to Macroeconomics. Critical Review 6 (4):471-492.
Added to index2009-01-28
Total downloads41 ( #88,447 of 1,781,386 )
Recent downloads (6 months)18 ( #41,695 of 1,781,386 )
How can I increase my downloads?