On Defining Climate and Climate Change

British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 67 (2):337-364 (2016)
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Abstract

The aim of the article is to provide a clear and thorough conceptual analysis of the main candidates for a definition of climate and climate change. Five desiderata on a definition of climate are presented: it should be empirically applicable; it should correctly classify different climates; it should not depend on our knowledge; it should be applicable to the past, present, and future; and it should be mathematically well-defined. Then five definitions are discussed: climate as distribution over time for constant external conditions; climate as distribution over time when the external conditions vary as in reality; climate as distribution over time relative to regimes of varying external conditions; climate as the ensemble distribution for constant external conditions; and climate as the ensemble distribution when the external conditions vary as in reality. The third definition is novel and is introduced as a response to problems with existing definitions. The conclusion is that most definitions encounter serious problems and that the third definition is most promising. 1 Introduction2 Climate Variables and a Simple Climate Model3 Desiderata on a Definition of Climate4 Climate as Distribution over Time4.1 Definition 1: Distribution over time for constant external conditions4.2 Definition 2: Distribution over time when the external conditions vary as in reality4.3 Definition 3: Distribution over time for regimes of varying external conditions4.4 Infinite versions5 Climate as Ensemble Distribution5.1 Definition 4: Ensemble distribution for constant external conditions5.2 Definition 5: Ensemble distribution when the external conditions vary as in reality5.3 Infinite versions6 ConclusionAppendix.

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Charlotte Sophie Werndl
London School of Economics

References found in this work

What Are the New Implications of Chaos for Unpredictability?Charlotte Werndl - 2009 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 60 (1):195-220.
Climate Models, Calibration, and Confirmation.Katie Steele & Charlotte Werndl - 2013 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64 (3):609-635.
Understanding pluralism in climate modeling.Wendy Parker - 2006 - Foundations of Science 11 (4):349-368.

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