David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Thinking and Reasoning 3 (2):111 – 132 (1997)
People made forecasts from graphically presented time series. Series were sinusoids overlaid by a zero or positive linear trend and a zero, low, moderate, or high level of noise. Forecasting performance was affected by both these variables. However, it did not correlate with ability to identify the trend and correlated significantly with ability to detect the sinusoidal pattern only when series were noise-free. A second experiment showed that the effect of data noise was not influenced by the number of forecasts that people made from a series. These findings are consistent with the view that data noise does not affect the way that forecasts are made but that it impairs them for two reasons. First, it renders the anchor-and-adjust heuristics underlying them less effective. Second, it causes people to add more noise to their judgements in their attempts to make them representative of the data.
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
|Through your library||Configure|
Similar books and articles
Michael E. Green (1978). A Model for Channel Noise, Including the Effect of Diffusion. Acta Biotheoretica 27 (1-2).
Benj Hellie (2005). Noise and Perceptual Indiscriminability. Mind 114 (455):481-508.
Derek Abbott & Paul C. W. Davies, Order From Disorder: The Role of Noise in Creative Processes. A Special Issue On Game Theory And.
Andrew Boucher, The Existence of Numbers (Or: What is the Status of Arithmetic?) By V2.00 Created: 11 Oct 2001 Modified: 3 June 2002 Please Send Your Comments to Abo. [REVIEW]
James W. McAllister (2011). What Do Patterns in Empirical Data Tell Us About the Structure of the World? Synthese 182 (1):73-87.
Added to index2009-02-11
Total downloads2 ( #254,377 of 1,006,224 )
Recent downloads (6 months)0
How can I increase my downloads?