David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jonathan Jenkins Ichikawa
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Theory and Decision 54 (4):287-314 (2003)
The conjunction fallacy occurs whenever probability compounds are thought of as more likely than its component probabilities alone. In the experiment we present, subjects chose between simple and compound lotteries after some practice. Depending on the condition, they were given more or less information about the nature of probability compounds. The conjunction fallacy was surprisingly robust. There was, however, a puzzling dissociation between verbal and behavioral learning: verbal responses were sensitive, but actual choices entirely insensitive, to the amount of verbal instructions being provided. This might reflect a dichotomy between implicit and explicit learning. Caution must be exercised in generalizing results from what people say to what people do
|Keywords||conjunction fallacy heuristics learning probability compounding|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
Stefania Sitzia, Jiwei Zheng & Daniel John Zizzo (2015). Inattentive Consumers in Markets for Services. Theory and Decision 79 (2):307-332.
Anders Winman, Peter Juslin, Marcus Lindskog, HÃ¥kan Nilsson & Neda Kerimi (2014). The Role of ANS Acuity and Numeracy for the Calibration and the Coherence of Subjective Probability Judgments. Frontiers in Psychology 5.
Similar books and articles
Arthur S. Reber (1967). Implicit Learning of Artificial Grammars. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 6:855-863.
Frank Hammonds (2006). Toward an "Awareness" of the Relationship Between Task Performance and Own Verbal Accounts of That Performance. Analysis of Verbal Behavior 22:101-110.
Daniel John Zizzo (2000). Implicit Learning of (Boundedly) Rational Behaviour. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (5):700-701.
R. Brown & David N. McNeill (1966). The "Tip of the Tongue" Phenomenon. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 5:325-37.
Lawrence J. Rips (1975). Inductive Judgments About Natural Categories. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 14:665-681.
Alan Sidelle (2007). The Method of Verbal Dispute. Philosophical Topics 35 (1/2):83-113.
Sunbin Song, Howard Jr, James H. & Darlene V. Howard (2007). Implicit Probabilistic Sequence Learning is Independent of Explicit Awareness. Learning and Memory 14 (1-6):167-176.
Daniel Osherson (2004). The Conjunction Fallacy: A Misunderstanding About Conjunction? Cognitive Science 28 (3):467-477.
Bart Hollebrandse, Angeliek Hout & Petra Hendriks (2012). Children's First and Second-Order False-Belief Reasoning in a Verbal and a Low-Verbal Task. Synthese (3):1-13.
Andrew Carstairs (1987). Roman Jakobson: Verbal Art, Verbal Sign, Verbal Time (Review). Philosophy and Literature 11 (1):182-184.
C. S. I. Jenkins (2014). Merely Verbal Disputes. Erkenntnis 79 (1):11-30.
Eleni Ziori & Zoltán Dienes (2006). Subjective Measures of Unconscious Knowledge of Concepts. Mind and Society 5 (1):105-122.
Ana Franco-Watkins, Peter Derks & Michael Dougherty (2003). Reasoning in the Monty Hall Problem: Examining Choice Behaviour and Probability Judgements. Thinking and Reasoning 9 (1):67 – 90.
Added to index2010-09-02
Total downloads16 ( #251,220 of 1,939,198 )
Recent downloads (6 months)4 ( #161,507 of 1,939,198 )
How can I increase my downloads?