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Andrey Korotayev [13]Andrey V. Korotayev [1]
  1. Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (2014). Globalization Shuffles Cards of the World Pack: In Which Direction is the Global Economic-Political Balance Shifting? World Futures 70 (8):515-545.
    The article offers forecasts of the geopolitical and geo-economic development of the world in the forthcoming decades. One of the main accusations directed toward globalization is that it deepens the gap between the developed and developing countries dooming them to eternal backwardness. The article demonstrates that the actual situation is very different. It is shown that this is due to the globalization that the developing countries are generally growing much faster than the developed states, the World System core starts weakening (...)
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  2. Julia Zinkina & Andrey Korotayev (2014). Explosive Population Growth in Tropical Africa: Crucial Omission in Development Forecasts—Emerging Risks and Way Out. World Futures 70 (2):120-139.
    (2014). Explosive Population Growth in Tropical Africa: Crucial Omission in Development Forecasts—Emerging Risks and Way Out. World Futures: Vol. 70, No. 2, pp. 120-139.
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  3. Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (2012). Does “Arab Spring” Mean The Beginning Of World System Reconfiguration? World Futures 68 (7):471 - 505.
    In a previous article, ?The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future? (Grinin and Korotayev 2011), it was preliminarily demonstrated that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global reconfiguration. The subsequent events have confirmed this supposition. That is why in the present article we develop this important theme. The article offers a thorough analysis of the internal conditions of Arab countries on (...)
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  4. Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (2011). The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future. World Futures 67 (8):531 - 563.
    This article analyzes some important aspects of socioeconomic and political development of the world in the near future. The future always stems from the present. The first part of the article is devoted to the study of some crucial events of the present, which could be regarded as precursors of forthcoming fundamental changes. In particular, it is shown that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global (...)
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  5. Leonid Grinin, Peter Herrmann, Andrey Korotayev & Arno Tausch (eds.) (2010). History & Mathematics: Processes and Models of Global Dynamics.
    A more and more important role is played by new directions in historical research that study long-term dynamic processes and quantitative changes. This kind of history can hardly develop without the application of mathematical methods. The history is studied more and more as a system of various processes, within which one can detect waves and cycles of different lengths – from a few years to several centuries, or even millennia. This issue is the third collective monograph in the series of (...)
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  6. Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (2010). Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations? 2. The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions. Journal of Globalization Studies 1 (2):166-183.
    This article presents possible answers, and their respective probabilities, to the question, ‘What are the consequences of the present global crisis in the proximate future of the World System?’ It also attempts to describe the basic characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’ and to forecast certain future conditions. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the following: What does the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the World System centre mean? Will there be a (...)
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  7. Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev & Sergey Malkov (2010). A Mathematical Model of Juglar Cycles and the Current Global Crisis. In Leonid Grinin, Peter Herrmann, Andrey Korotayev & Arno Tausch (eds.), History & Mathematics: Processes and Models of Global Dynamics.
    The article presents a verbal and mathematical model of medium-term business cycles (with a characteristic period of 7–11 years) known as Juglar cycles. The model takes into account a number of approaches to the analysis of such cycles; in the meantime it also takes into account some of the authors' own generalizations and additions that are important for understanding the internal logic of the cycle, its variability and its peculiarities in the present-time conditions. The authors argue that the most important (...)
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  8. Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) (2009). Hierarchy and Power in the History of Civilizations: Cultural Dimensions. Moscow: KRASAND.
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  9. Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (2009). Social Macroevolution: Growth of the World System Integrity and a System of Phase Transitions. World Futures 65 (7):477 – 506.
    There are very significant conceptual links between theories of social macroevolution and theories of the World System development. It is shown that the growth of the World System complexity and integrity can be traced through a system of phase transitions of macroevolution. The first set of phase transition is connected with the agrarian, industrial, and information-scientific revolutions (that are interpreted as changes of “production principles”). The second set consists of phase transitions within one production principle. These phase transitions are analyzed (...)
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  10. Leonid Grinin, Alexander Markov, Markov & Andrey Korotayev (2009). Aromorphoses in Biological and Social Evolution: Some General Rules for Biological and Social Forms of Macroevolution. Social Evolution and History 8 (2).
    The comparison between biological and social macroevolution is a very important (though insufficiently studied) subject whose analysis renders new significant possibilities to comprehend the processes, trends, mechanisms, and peculiarities of each of the two types of macroevolution. Of course, there are a few rather important (and very understandable) differences between them; however, it appears possible to identify a number of fundamental similarities. One may single out at least three fundamental sets of factors determining those similarities. First of all, those similarities (...)
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  11. Andrey Korotayev & Leonid Grinin (2009). Social Macroevolution: Growth of the World System Integrity and a System of Phase Transitions. World Futures 65 (7):477-506.
    There are very significant conceptual links between theories of social macroevolution and theories of the World System development. It is shown that the growth of the World System complexity and integrity can be traced through a system of phase transitions of macroevolution. The first set of phase transition is connected with the agrarian, industrial, and information-scientific revolutions (that are interpreted as changes of “production principles”). The second set consists of phase transitions within one production principle. These phase transitions are analyzed (...)
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  12. Leonid Grinin, Dmitry Beliaev & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) (2008). Hierarchy and Power in the History of Civilisations: Political Aspects of Modernity. Librocom.
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  13. Dmitri M. Bondarenko, Leonid E. Grinin & Andrey V. Korotayev (2004). Alternatives of Social Evolution. In Leonid Grinin, Robert Carneiro, Dmitri Bondarenko, Nikolay Kradin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), The Early State, its Alternatives and Analogues. ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House. 3--27.
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  14. Leonid Grinin, Robert Carneiro, Dmitri Bondarenko, Nikolay Kradin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) (2004). The Early State, Its Alternatives and Analogues. ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House.
    Henri JM Claessen Was the State Inevitable? ● Leonid E. Grinin The Early State and Its Analogues: A Comparative Analysis ...
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