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Profile: Donald Angus Gillies (University College London)
  1.  80
    Donald Gillies (2000). Philosophical Theories of Probability. Routledge.
    This book presents a comprehensive and systematic account of the various philosophical theories of probability and explains how they are related. It covers the classical, logical, subjective, frequency, and propensity views of probability. Donald Gillies even provides a new theory of probability -the intersubjective-a development of the subjective theory. He argues for a pluralist view, where there can be more than one valid interpretation of probabiltiy, each appropriate in a different context. The relation of the various interpretations to the Bayesian (...)
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  2. Donald A. Gillies (2001). Popper and Computer Induction. Bioessays 23 (9):859-860.
  3.  63
    Brendan Clarke, Donald Gillies, Phyllis Illari, Federica Russo & Jon Williamson (2014). Mechanisms and the Evidence Hierarchy. Topoi 33 (2):339-360.
    Evidence-based medicine (EBM) makes use of explicit procedures for grading evidence for causal claims. Normally, these procedures categorise evidence of correlation produced by statistical trials as better evidence for a causal claim than evidence of mechanisms produced by other methods. We argue, in contrast, that evidence of mechanisms needs to be viewed as complementary to, rather than inferior to, evidence of correlation. In this paper we first set out the case for treating evidence of mechanisms alongside evidence of correlation in (...)
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  4. Donald Gillies & Aidan Sudbury (2013). Should Causal Models Always Be Markovian? The Case of Multi-Causal Forks in Medicine. European Journal for Philosophy of Science 3 (3):275-308.
    The development of causal modelling since the 1950s has been accompanied by a number of controversies, the most striking of which concerns the Markov condition. Reichenbach's conjunctive forks did satisfy the Markov condition, while Salmon's interactive forks did not. Subsequently some experts in the field have argued that adequate causal models should always satisfy the Markov condition, while others have claimed that non-Markovian causal models are needed in some cases. This paper argues for the second position by considering the multi-causal (...)
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  5.  5
    Donald Gillies (2010). An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals). Routledge.
    This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises’ views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises’ definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should (...)
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  6.  17
    Brendan Clarke, Donald Gillies, Phyllis Illari, Frederica Russo & Jon Williamson (2013). The Evidence That Evidence-Based Medicine Omits. Preventive Medicine 57:745-747.
    According to current hierarchies of evidence for EBM, evidence of correlation is always more important than evidence of mechanisms when evaluating and establishing causal claims. We argue that evidence of mechanisms needs to be treated alongside evidence of correlation. This is for three reasons. First, correlation is always a fallible indicator of causation, subject in particular to the problem of confounding; evidence of mechanisms can in some cases be more important than evidence of correlation when assessing a causal claim. Second, (...)
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  7. Donald Gillies (2014). Should Philosophers of Mathematics Make Use of Sociology? Philosophia Mathematica 22 (1):12-34.
    This paper considers whether philosophy of mathematics could benefit by the introduction of some sociology. It begins by considering Lakatos's arguments that philosophy of science should be kept free of any sociology. An attempt is made to criticize these arguments, and then a positive argument is given for introducing a sociological dimension into the philosophy of mathematics. This argument is illustrated by considering Brouwer's account of numbers as mental constructions. The paper concludes with a critical discussion of Azzouni's view that (...)
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  8. Donald Gillies (2011). The Russo-Williamson Thesis and the Question of Whether Smoking Causes Heart Disease. In Phyllis McKay Illari, Federica Russo & Jon Williamson (eds.), Causality in the Sciences. Oxford University Press 110--125.
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  9.  76
    Donald Gillies (2000). Varieties of Propensity. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 51 (4):807-835.
    The propensity interpretation of probability was introduced by Popper ([1957]), but has subsequently been developed in different ways by quite a number of philosophers of science. This paper does not attempt a complete survey, but discusses a number of different versions of the theory, thereby giving some idea of the varieties of propensity. Propensity theories are classified into (i) long-run and (ii) single-case. The paper argues for a long-run version of the propensity theory, but this is contrasted with two single-case (...)
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  10. Donald Gillies (2012). Philosophical Theories of Probability. Routledge.
    The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. _Philosophical Theories of Probability_ is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.
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  11.  42
    Donald Gillies (2005). Hempelian and Kuhnian Approaches in the Philosophy of Medicine: The Semmelweis Case. Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 36 (1):159-181.
    Semmelweis’s investigations of puerperal fever are some of the most interesting in the history of medicine. This paper considers Hempel’s analysis of the Semmelweis case. It argues that this analysis is inadequate and needs to be supplemented by some Kuhnian ideas. Kuhn’s notion of paradigm needs to be modified to apply to medicine in order to take account of the classification schemes involved in medical theorising. However with a suitable modification it provides an explanation of Semmelweis’s failure which is argued (...)
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  12. Philip Dawid & Donald Gillies (1989). A Bayesian Analysis of Hume's Argument Concerning Miracles. Philosophical Quarterly 39 (154):57-65.
  13.  36
    Donald Gillies (2005). An Action-Related Theory of Causality. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 56 (4):823-842.
    The paper begins with a discussion of Russell's view that the notion of cause is unnecessary for science and can therefore be eliminated. It is argued that this is true for theoretical physics but untrue for medicine, where the notion of cause plays a central role. Medical theories are closely connected with practical action (attempts to cure and prevent disease), whereas theoretical physics is more remote from applications. This suggests the view that causal laws are appropriate in a context where (...)
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  14.  99
    Donald A. Gillies (1971). A Falsifying Rule for Probability Statements. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 22 (3):231-261.
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  15.  56
    Donald Gillies (2003). Review of La Natura E Il Futuro Della Filosofia. [REVIEW] British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 54 (3):501-507.
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  16.  50
    Donald Gillies (ed.) (1992). Revolutions in Mathematics. Oxford University Press.
    Social revolutions--that is critical periods of decisive, qualitative change--are a commonly acknowledged historical fact. But can the idea of revolutionary upheaval be extended to the world of ideas and theoretical debate? The publication of Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions in 1962 led to an exciting discussion of revolutions in the natural sciences. A fascinating, but little known, off-shoot of this was a debate which began in the United States in the mid-1970's as to whether the concept of revolution could (...)
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  17.  27
    Donald Gillies (1986). In Defense of the Popper-Miller Argument. Philosophy of Science 53 (1):110-113.
    In their 1983 article, Popper and Miller present an argument against inductive probability. This argument is criticized by Redhead in his 1985 article. The aim of the present note is to state one form of the Popper-Miller argument, and defend it against Redhead's criticisms.
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  18.  37
    Donald Gillies (1993). Philosophy of Science in the Twentieth Century: Four Central Themes. Blackwell.
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  19.  76
    Donald Gillies (1990). The Turing-Good Weight of Evidence Function and Popper's Measure of the Severity of a Test. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 41 (1):143-146.
  20.  26
    Donald Gillies (1991). Intersubjective Probability and Confirmation Theory. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 42 (4):513-533.
    This paper introduces what is called the intersubjective interpretation of the probability calculus. Intersubjective probabilities are related to subjective probabilities, and the paper begins with a particular formulation of the familiar Dutch Book argument. This argument is then extended, in Section 3, to social groups, and this enables the concept of intersubjective probability to be introduced in Section 4. It is then argued that the intersubjective interpretation is the appropriate one for the probabilities which appear in confirmation theory whether of (...)
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  21.  59
    Donald Gillies (2003). Review of 'Carlo Cellucci. Filosofia E Matematica (Philosophy and Mathematics)'. [REVIEW] Philosophia Mathematica 11 (2):246-253.
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  22.  14
    Donald Gillies (2004). Handling Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, and the Bayesian Controversy. In Friedrich Stadler (ed.), Vienna Circle Institute Yearbook. Springer 199.
    This paper is divided into two parts. In the first part , I will describe briefly how advances in artificial intelligence in the 1970s led to the crucial problem of handling uncertainty, and how attempts to solve this problem led in turn to the emergence of the new theory of Bayesian networks. I will try to focus in this historical account on the key ideas and will not give a full account of the technical details. Then, in the second part (...)
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  23.  54
    Donald Gillies (1991). A Bayesian Proof of a Humean Principle. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 42 (2):255-256.
    Hume bases his argument against miracles on an informal principle. This paper gives a formal explication of this principle of Hume’s, and then shows that this explication can be rigorously proved in a Bayesian framework.
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  24. Donald Gillies (1996). Artificial Intelligence and Scientific Method. Oxford University Press.
    Artificial Intelligence and Scientific Method examines the remarkable advances made in the field of AI over the past twenty years, discussing their profound implications for philosophy. Taking a clear, non-technical approach, Donald Gillies shows how current views on scientific method are challenged by this recent research, and suggests a new framework for the study of logic. Finally, he draws on work by such seminal thinkers as Bacon, Gdel, Popper, Penrose, and Lucas, to address the hotly-contested question of whether computers might (...)
     
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  25.  69
    Donald Gillies (2001). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference Judea Pearl. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 52 (3):613-622.
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  26.  18
    Donald Gillies (2001). Bayesianism and the Fixity of the Theoretical Framework. In David Corfield & Jon Williamson (eds.), Foundations of Bayesianism. Kluwer Academic Publishers 363--379.
  27.  6
    Anne Pirrie & Donald Gillies (2012). Untimely Meditations on the Disciplines of Education. British Journal of Educational Studies 60 (4):387 - 402.
    The aim of this article is to explore what the concept of interdisciplinarity can bring to our developing understanding of education as a field of enquiry. We shall draw upon some recent writing on the disciplines of education in order to explore the potentially negative consequences of the way in which the disciplines are institutionalised and territorialised. We also assign some prominence to a personal account of an eminent anthropologist's perambulations through a disciplinary landscape in order to put forward an (...)
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  28.  10
    Donald Gillies (2016). Technological Origins of the Einsteinian Revolution. Philosophy and Technology 29 (2):97-126.
    The Einsteinian revolution, which began around 1905, was one of the most remarkable in the history of physics. It replaced Newtonian mechanics, which had been accepted as completely correct for nearly 200 years, by the special and general theories of relativity. It also eliminated the aether, which had dominated physics throughout the nineteenth century. This paper poses the question of why this momentous scientific revolution began. The suggested answer is in terms of the remarkable series of discoveries and inventions which (...)
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  29.  66
    Donald Gillies (2002). Causality, Propensity, and Bayesian Networks. Synthese 132 (1-2):63 - 88.
    This paper investigates the relations between causality and propensity. Aparticular version of the propensity theory of probability is introduced, and it is argued that propensities in this sense are not causes. Some conclusions regarding propensities can, however, be inferred from causal statements, but these hold only under restrictive conditions which prevent cause being defined in terms of propensity. The notion of a Bayesian propensity network is introduced, and the relations between such networks and causal networks is investigated. It is argued (...)
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  30.  10
    Donald Gillies (2009). Problem-Solving and the Problem of Induction. In Zuzana Parusniková & R. S. Cohen (eds.), Rethinking Popper. Springer 103--115.
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  31.  10
    Donald Gillies (2012). Economics and Research Assessment Systems. Economic Thought 1 (1):23-47.
    This paper seeks to analyse the effects on Economics of Research Assessment Systems, such as the Research Assessment Exercise which was carried out in the UK between 1986 and 2008. The paper begins by pointing out that, in the 2008 RAE, economics turned out to be the research area which was accorded the highest valuation of any subject in the UK, even though economists were then under attack for failing to predict the global financial crash which had occurred a few (...)
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  32.  21
    Donald A. Gillies (1991). International Symposium on Structures in Mathematical Theories (SSMT-90) (San Sebastián, 25-29 de Septiembre de 1.990). Theoria 6 (1):331-335.
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  33. Donald Gillies (1998). The Duhem Thesis and the Quine Thesis. In Martin Curd & Jan Cover (eds.), Philosophy of Science: The Central Issues. Norton 302--319.
     
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  34.  7
    Donald Gillies (2010). Abduction and Bayesianism in Medical Diagnosis. Ludus Vitalis 18 (33):217-220.
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  35.  29
    Donald Gillies (1998). Debates on Bayesianism and the Theory of Bayesian Networks. Theoria 64 (1):1-22.
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  36.  22
    Donald Gillies & Yuxin Zheng (2001). Dynamic Interactions with the Philosophy of Mathematics. Theoria 16 (3):437-459.
    Dynamic interaction is said to occur when two significanrly different fields A and B come into relation, and their interaction is dynamic in the sense that at first the flow of ideas is principally from A to B, but later ideas from B come to influence A. Two examples are given of dynamic interactions with the philosophy of mathematics. The first is with philosophy of scicnce, and thc sccond with computer science. Theanalysis cnables Lakatos to be charactcrised as thc first (...)
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  37.  7
    Donald Gillies (1996). Review of 'Matteo Motterlini(Ed.) Lakatos Feyerabend'. [REVIEW] British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 47 (3):476-478.
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  38.  15
    Donald Gillies (2014). A New Branch of Philosophy of Science: The Philosophy of Medicine. [REVIEW] Metascience 23 (2):319-322.
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  39.  36
    Donald Gillies (2009). Review of Hasok Chang Inventing Temperature: Measurement and Scientific Progress. [REVIEW] British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 60 (1):221-228.
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  40.  34
    Donald Gillies (1999). Critical Studies / Book Reviews. Philosophia Mathematica 7 (2):246-253.
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  41.  2
    Anne Pirrie & Donald Gillies (2012). Untimely Meditations on the Disciplines of Education. British Journal of Educational Studies 60 (4):387-402.
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  42.  8
    Donald Gillies (2014). Timothy Childers. Philosophy and Probability. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013. ISBN: 978-0-19-966182-4 (Hbk); 978-0-19-966183-1 (Pbk). Pp. Xviii + 194. [REVIEW] Philosophia Mathematica 22 (3):413-417.
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  43. Donald Gillies (2001). Critical Notices-Judea Pearl Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. [REVIEW] British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 52 (3):613-622.
     
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  44.  3
    Donald Gillies (2000). An Empiricist Philosophy of Mathematics and its Implications for the History of Mathematics. In Emily Grosholz & Herbert Breger (eds.), The Growth of Mathematical Knowledge. Kluwer Academic Publishers 41--57.
  45.  8
    Donald A. Gillies (1992). Comments on 'Scientific Discovery as Problem Solving' by Herbert A. Simon. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 6 (1):29 – 31.
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  46.  3
    Donald Gillies (1999). German Philosophy of Mathematics From Gauss to Hilbert. Royal Institute of Philosophy Supplement 44:167-192.
    Suppose we were to ask some students of philosophy to imagine a typical book of classical German philosophy and describe its general style and character, how might they reply? I suspect that they would answer somewhat as follows. The book would be long and heavy, it would be written in a complicated style which employed only very abstract terms, and it would be extremely difficult to understand. At all events a description of this kind does indeed fit many famous works (...)
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  47.  14
    Donald Gillies (2010). Informational Realism and World 3. Knowledge, Technology & Policy 23 (1-2):7-24.
    This paper takes up a suggestion made by Floridi that the digital revolution is bringing about a profound change in our metaphysics. The paper aims to bring some older views from philosophy of mathematics to bear on this problem. The older views are concerned principally with mathematical realism—that is the claim that mathematical entities such as numbers exist. The new context for the discussion is informational realism, where the problem shifts to the question of the reality of information. Mathematical realism (...)
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  48.  3
    Donald Gillies (2014). Review of Timothy Childers. Philosophy and Probability. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013. ISBN: 978-0-19-966182-4 ; 978-0-19-966183-1 . Pp. Xviii + 194. [REVIEW] Philosophia Mathematica 22 (3):413-417.
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  49.  3
    Donald Gillies (1996). Poincaré: Conservative Methodologist but Revolutionary Scientist. Philosophia Scientiae 1 (4):59-67.
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  50.  7
    Donald Gillies (1995). Popper's Contribution to the Philosophy of Probability. Royal Institute of Philosophy Supplement 39:103-120.
    Popper's writings cover a remarkably wide range of subjects. The spectrum runs from Plato's theory of politics to the foundations of quantum mechanics. Yet even amidst this variety the philosophy of probability occupies a prominent place. David Miller once pointed out to me that more than half of Popper's The Logic of Scientific Discovery is taken up with discussions of probability. I checked this claim using the 1972 6th revised impression of The Logic of Scientific Discovery , and found that (...)
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